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Methodology

Home Methodology
Disclosure: We all have filters. Every economist and every political analyst has a kind of model, he/she is shaped to a greater or lesser extent by his/her background and world-view. Although he pursues the truth with an un-ideological approach, Christian Takushi’s geopolitical macro analysis is shaped, influenced and constrained by the factors/goals stated below. 

Observers say, Christian Takushi has, on the one hand, broadened Macroeconomic Research to include geopolitical factors; on the other hand, he has also broadened the logical-linear Western view of the world to include the rather circular Oriental way of seeing the world.

Here in more detail what has shaped or constrained his research:

1) An innovative synthesis of geopolitical & macroeconomic analysis:
  • Priority on analysis of interactions & overlaps at aggregate levels
  • Causality in both directions is considered to account for feedback loops
  • Main objective is to provide a clearer Macro Outlook that takes into account key geopolitical forces
2 ) Methodologies used in Macroeconomic analysis:
  • Macroeconomic & Monetary Theory
  • Classical and neoclassical business & credit cycles theory
  • Macroeconomic empirical research
  • Constrained rational expectations and efficiency of markets
  • Time series analysis
  • Proprietary Macroeconomic Efficiency Ratios (MER) and Time Series Aggregation techniques developed in the light of globalization and the rise of emerging economies.
3 ) Methodologies used in Geopolitical Analysis

  • Priority on overlaps and interaction at macro level
  • GROM methodology: Global Risk Overlap Method (an early warning system for Global Risk assessment)
  • Lev-AL methodology: Level of Alertness for businesses to handle operational disruptions (business DEFCON)
  • Geographical issues (i.e. river grid, sweet water etc ) and historic evolution of borders
  • Projection of Military Power at sea, land and in the air
  • Cultural attributes that condition “thinking” and “decision-making” (linear vs circular etc)
  • Social & political trends (i.e. income gap, polarisation, demographics etc.)
  • Religion and faith-related trends
  • History of bilateral relations and past national failures (political & military history)
4 ) Personal background shapes perspective to some extent:
  • Christian has not only broadened Macroeconomic Research to develop an effective approach for Geopolitical Analysis, he has also broadened the logical-linear Western view of the world to include the rather circular Oriental way of seeing the world. This was definitely shaped by his “growing up” with simultaneous exposure to Western and Oriental world-views and values 
  • Child of immigrants from Europe & Asia to Latin America – not caught up in a “East vs West” worldview
  • Personal experience of risks of emerging economies: socialism, hyper-inflation, military coup, civil war, terrorism and  discrimination of minorities
  • Christian faith and respect for people’s spirituality, religion and way-of-thinking
  • Logical approach to questions shaped by training in math, physics and economics

Note: Macroeconomic research and experience has shown Christian that what some people categorise as evil or good intent is simply the pursuit of logical political or economic interests; sometimes both. This greatly reduces the need for conspiracy theories to explain events and trends.

> Recommended next page: Geopolitical macroeconomic themes

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Note: introductory prices end in Dec 2018

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Site info & Data Privacy Policy

We are an independent geopolitical research boutique. We identify & analyse risks that are underestimated by consensus, but relevant for the economy. Christian Takushi is a Swiss-Peruvian Macro Economist & Geopolitical Strategist. He has served 25 years in the global investment industry, appeared on Bloomberg TV, radio, newspapers, and lectured at elite schools. We thank all researchers and analysts contributing ideas, research and critical feedbacks. Quality of Analysis & Speed are our top priority. DATA PRIVACY POLICY: We take personal data seriously and are highly supportive of the new EU General Data Protection Regulation (EU GDPR). These are key elements of our policy: - We are committed to remain completely independent - We collect the absolutely minimum of personal data required by Swiss Authorities. - We don't sell your personal data nor do we share it with any other party for commercial gain - We engage an external professional cyber security company - We use a competent and GDPR-committed newsletter software for safe automatic data processing. By subscribing to our newsletters and using our research you agree with the standard use of cookies and the processing of your data by a GDPR-compliant data processor. For more detail, please, see our Terms & Conditions

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© Christian Takushi 2014