This site was built in 2014 by Economist Christian Takushi to facilitate thought exchange and to advance inter-disciplinary research. The free access to the public and other researchers is a service to society and decision makers in advanced & developing countries alike.
Mr. Takushi posts here the latest stage of his global macroeconomic geopolitical research with certain regularity. Opinions of other writers are their own. A number of economists, researchers, analysts and experts in various fields are supporting this open interdisciplinary research effort of combining macroeconomic, geopolitical, political and investment knowhow.
We try to focus on underestimated geopolitical developments that could impact the real economy and markets. Thus, we focus on external soft, non-numerical & complex factors. Since Consensus is highly focused on short term developments and hard financial data, the research on this site helps complement Consensus.
This website facilitates research exchange and academic discussion across professions, and serves as a source of independent analysis in times of geopolitical and macroeconomic shifts. We are living in times of unprecedented uncertainty and news over-flow. Independent forward-looking analysis has become rather rare. This partly, because fear and incentives push analysts towards the consensus.
The post-Cold War World Economy is becoming increasingly shaped by geopolitical forces and trends, so much that – according to Christian Takushi – it is worthwhile to develop concepts, analyses and tools to research this increasingly Geopolitics-driven globalised Economy. Welcome to Geopolitical Economics. Through the dramatic rise of Asian Economies the Global Balance in economic power, politics, military, energy and religion is being affected. Not only has the center of global trade shifted to the Pacific Rim, even the center of christianity has shifted from the West to Asia, Africa and Latin America. Most realms of society are being challenged. Asia leads Emerging Markets as it challenges the supremacy of the West. Having covered the Far East and Emerging Economies for over 25 years, Christian uses his knowledge of Oriental/Latin economies and cultures to analyse how Emerging Nations are affecting global geopolitical and macroeconomic trends (and vice versa), accelerating the overlap of macroeconomic and geopolitical forces.
More accurate Outlooks .. that include soft factors including religious trends
Christian uses the “intelligence” from specialists in other fields to identify geopolitical factors that could impact the macro outlook of key economies. The Pacific Rim (USA, Mexico, China, Japan, S.Korea, Russia etc) is increasingly driving the global economic and geopolitical competition. In its broader sense, “Geopolitics” encompasses all factors related to the geography & different resources of nation states. From river-grids, impassable mountains, minerals, gas, oil .. to .. labor force, population, their religion and political system. According to Christian Takushi, religion is probably by far the most underestimated geopolitical factor.
.. with diversity and balance
Although the world economy is increasingly interconnected, economists, political analysts and scientists are not working closer together. Far from it. Predictions are made often out of one single perspective. To explain motives often conspiracy theories are utilised.
For this reason Christian has expanded traditional macro research to include political, military, religious and other soft factors. In Christian’s research all nations and their leaders are met with respect. Christian endeavours to understand the values and priorities that drive the decision-making of national leaders. And they differ from culture to culture, religion to religion, and region to region. Even neighbouring states differ in their Foreign or Monetary Policy depending on their geo-strategic strength (or lack thereof.
Some examples of how Geopolitical Insight was an advantage
- In 2011 Christian’s geopolitical analysis pointed to the imminent increase in demand for the Swiss Franc as a Safe Heaven asset.
- In 2011 while most observers celebrated the Arab Spring as springboards of democracy, Christian disagreed. He warned of more instability and a US push for energy independence.
- In 2013 as most investors were bracing for an US attack on Syria after it had crossed Obama’s Red Line, Christian Takushi warned quickly the USA will not attack Syria.
- After the MH17 tragedy in July 2014 consensus expected a dramatic US-Russia escalation, Christian Takushi quickly explained why the USA and Russia would not escalate beyond standard protocol.
- While many observers were concerned the Hong Kong pro-democracy protests could spread, Christian saw China’s median age was 37, and Hong Kong’s was even 43. Both are too “old” to embrace revolution (22 or younger needed). Understanding demographic, religious and cultural trends in Asia is vital: Confusian people rarely rebel against authority, they are more likely to endure bitter infighting between factions.
- In 2016 Christian Takushi pointed to the BREXIT and TRUMP surprises. He also predicted since Dec 2016 that France and Germany would shift further to the Liberal Left – in part as a reaction to the structural rise of a right wing minority. That was at a time when the consensus expected a shift to the Far Right.
A holistic view
Geopolitical research is currently dominated by analysts and scholars with a political or government background. By contrast, Christian Takushi explains most trends & conflicts as the logical result of converging or diverging economic and geopolitical interests, rather than as clash of good and evil nations. Christian has not only broadened Macro Research to include geopolitical factors, he has also broadened the logical-linear Western view of the world to include the rather circular Oriental way of seeing human existance.
History could repeat itself
Before WW2 most analysts vastly underestimated the inevitable and downplayed all initial signs of trouble. The scenario was too horrifying for a war-weary world to even consider it. Because of that, a tolerant world did not arrest the beginnings, Germany-Italy-Japan were challenged way too late. Today is not different, most analysis is short-sighted and influenced by public opinion and an often politically-correct consensus. News have become a mass product that are marketed and sold. On the other extreme doom-sayers take advantage of widespread anxiety and fear. Both extremes are dangerous.
Disclaimer: a “must read”
Geopolitical Analysis is highly complex and subject to sudden change.Every method, model and analysis has its shortcomings. This geopolitical analysis should never be interpreted as investment recommendations.
Any person wanting to use our geopolitical insights as input for investment decisions does so at his/her own risk and needs to know that one and the same analysis can lead to different actions. This depends on the investors’s goals, risk tolerance, risk budget, portfolio allocation, overall asset structure, net debt, cash flow projection, life expectancy, ethical and religious beliefs. Christian strongly encourages investors to seek advice and check differing views before taking any decision affecting their investments, profession, business or family.
Christian does not assume any responsibility for the opinions expressed by other specialists (strategists, economists, analysts etc) that contribute to this website. They are independent in their views and research – and we aim at respecting that. Their independence is important, it allows us to benefit from their analysis and to learn from one another. We don’t want a mono-culture, neither do we want only contributors that agree with Christian’s opinion.
For more information about the analysis method: click here.