Bloomberg TV-Monika Schaller interviews economists Klaus Papenbrock from Deutsche Bank AG and Christian Takushi from Swissca in early 2002 on the US and Asian economies – analyzing impact on Korea, Taiwan and especially Japan.
Both economists agree that the World Economy is the the process of a sustained significant recovery that will ultimately also impact Japan positively. After the burst of the Tech bubble in 2000 the global economy entered a severe correction. In Q4 2001 some key economic data looked very discouraging. Both economists try to look forward though and see Q4 2001 as the lowest point (bottom) of current economic cycle.
While Takushi is convinced Japan will be positively impact by cyclical demand from the US and that a global recovery in under way, he warms that the Japanese market has repeatedly disappointed overly positive expectations. Thus the recovery may also reflect the temporary cyclical external boost. As the Japanese market may follow Korea and Taiwan higher, investors should keep this warning in mind.