By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Macro Economist & Geopolitical Strategist. 14 April 2018 – Switzerland. (the public release was delayed by 6 hours)
The USA, France and Britain have taken action against Syria overnight. The air strikes by Naval and Air allied forces is a limited & focused strike. US Central Command’s efforts to avoid killing Russian soldiers is something that should allow Moscow to see off a massive response.
Interestingly, the USA, France and Britain have followed established Israeli Containment Doctrine in dealing with Syrian threats. Israel strikes specific Syrian military assets, while hurting Iranian and Russian interests on the ground. The strikes send a message, but are “measured” in nature. They are not devastating and at times back channels are used to avoid unnecessary civilian or Russian casualties.
Given the low tolerance for additional loss of lives (of allied military personnel), we see President Trump, President Macron and PM May as likely overcoming the criticism of their action. They are coming under pressure by their oppositions for not allowing their parliaments to discuss this and take the decision. This criticism won’t be effective though, because given the threats by Russia and her capabilities on the ground, any allied attack after extensive discussions and approval by Western parliaments would have put the lives of US, French and British personnel at high risk. Thus, the Labour leader in the UK and the Senate & House Minority leaders in the USA will have to tone down their rhetoric that this action was utterly “illegal” or they may come across as politicising the crisis in Syria at the expense of the safety of military personnel.
A strategic perspective
More importantly, the war in Syria and the relentless expansion of Iran are a direct result of the crisis of Western democracies. Western leaders keep doing the same and yet expect better results: They focus on a predictable pattern of appeasement, followed by predictable military containment efforts. Although Mr. Trump has had the courage to depart from Mr. Obama’s fear of provoking a direct clash with Russia, this Combined Air Strike is still a predictable reaction. The West does not have the initiative. Russia and Iran do.
The West was utterly unable to avert the last major war in the Middle East – the 6 Day War – although the tensions, warnings and threats built up over years. I predict that the West will not be able to avert the next war either. Yet not everything will be repeated. Based on our independent analysis and intelligence gathering. we ascertain that having gone through this before at least two times, Israel will no longer give up any territory gained in a war in exchange for an elusive peace brokered by the West. Thus, the next war will do change the landscape of the Middle East. This is one of the reasons, why the stakes for the next major war in the Middle East are so high.
By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Macro Economist & Geopolitical Strategist. 14 April 2018 – Switzerland
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