By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist & Strategist, 2 Jun 2017 -Switzerland.
An unprecedented 7 year period has started in the Middle East. What happens when crucial historical & religious anniversaries fall in one and the same year in Muslim and Jewish circles of power? A 50th, 70th and 100th anniversary and even a 500th anniversary? An acceleration of events.
The leaders of Turkey, Iran, Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon and Israel have been gearing up for this season: 100 years ago this November the Muslim world lost Jerusalem to Christianity, 50 years ago they lost Jerusalem to Israel. The burden is on Muslim religious & political leaders to reestablish influence over Jerusalem, the Middle East and Europe. How it used to be for centuries.
In a nutshell, the Middle East has entered a tremendously significant period that starts this June 2017 and is likely to last 7 years. The period will be marked by anniversaries of powerful religious, historical and political significance among Muslim and Jewish religious & political groups. By the end of 2024 many in the West will probably have learnt that time in the Orient is cyclical in essence. Neither consensus nor the media are monitoring these developments – to the detriment of decision makers and investors. One reason for it is our Western linear-logical way of thinking and lack of regard for what drives decision making in Oriental-Asian cultures. In the past that didn’t matter, but now these cultures are rising: either geopolitically (Iran, Turkey etc.) or economically (India), or both (China). While the Western calendar is influenced by the sun, Oriental calendars are influenced by the moon. And right in the middle is the Jewish calendar, which tracks both the sun and the moon. During 2017-2024 multiple factors will converge in the Middle East, just at a time when the West will be at its most vulnerable since 1938. I’m not making exact predictions here, rather sharing analysis at aggregate levels that points to elevated likelihood of fat tail events for the world economy and henceforth financial markets over the next 7 years.
I think it is worthwhile to recap what happened 50 years ago in the Middle East and to try to grasp why that war still (so silently) lingers in the collective conscience. Our media has done a good job exposing the unresolved situation of Palestinian refugees from the 6 Day War. I endeavour to shed light on relevant issues underestimated/overlooked by consensus, so I won’t touch upon that important subject here.
For months we have been warning of the acceleration of events in the Middle East as the region prepares to mark the 50th anniversary of the 6 Day War this June and later this year the 100th anniversary of the Fall of Jerusalem from Muslim to Christian hands when the Ottoman-German forces were defeated by Gen. Allenby’s British Expeditionary Forces in WW1. Few in the West know that war was itself the Arab response to the 50th anniversary of the Balfourt Declaration which paved the way for the re-birth of the state of Israel on its ancient land. Indeed much of the thinking by Oriental decision makers is cyclical, historical and religion/honour inspired. Western analysts fail to pay enough respect to Oriental culture, religion and concept of time – and Western decision makers pay for it again and again.
After having informed our clients we’ll release to the public a special summarised Geopolitical Outlook over the next 30 hours, just before the 50th anniversary of the 6 Day War (5-10 June 1967).
The fact that in less than 36 hours the inferior Israeli tank brigades could utterly wipe out all Egyptian tank divisions – destroying over 700 modern Soviet tanks – is not a lesser impossibility than the surprise raid by the Israeli Air Force that practically destroyed the entire Egyptian Air Force on the ground – before they could take off. Syria and Egypt had prepared meticulously for this war since they lost the 1st Arab-Israeli War of 1948 and the Sinai conflict. The Russian ground-air missiles should have wiped out the Israeli Air Force (another patchwork of second hand items), but a most unusual convergence of events played out in Israeli favor. Originally military experts said the Egyptian High Command did all wrong, and the Israelis did all right – which is to a large extent true. The Israelis used their utter inferiority to their advantage. One Israeli tank commander that survived the ferocious Sinai tank battles said “we knew this was life or death, .. but a (superior) enemy can be shocked when you never stop”. In recent years, more military scholars acknowledge that the shocking speed and gallantry of the Israeli tankers and fighter pilots – backed by an edge in intelligence – cannot fully explain what unfolded in those 6 days.
A fateful 50th anniversary overlaps with another fateful 100th anniversary: In other (less religious and less prophetic) parts of the world, the 6 Day War would be laid to rest. But Jews and Arabs are weighted by the religious, astrological and historical patterns at work – which remain mostly overlooked by Western scholars. This year the Moslem World also remembers the 100th anniversary of the defeat of German-Turkish armies in the Judean Hills and the Negev, which led to the return of Jerusalem to Christianity in November 2017 (i.e. British Expeditionary Forces led by Gen. Allenby in WW1). That marked the end of 673 years of Moslem control of Jerusalem – a disaster that ushered the end of the Ottoman Empire (last Great Caliphate) in 1922. A dark chapter that Turkey, Iran and Arab leaders want to re-write between 2017 and 2022.
Politics will be able to mobilise all peoples involved: The great religious zeal of Arabs and Israelis heightens the inexplicable series of disasters and miracles during those fateful 6 long days. Add to it the political necessity of rising Middle Eastern powers (Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia etc) to avenge the humiliating outcomes of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd Arab-Israeli Wars. This to secure their leadership of the Muslim world. In the deceitful quest for Securing Peace in our Time, President Trump is risking a similarly controversial and fateful move to Obama’s: Just as Obama set the Middle East on path for war to appease and strengthen Iran, President Trump is appeasing Saudi Arabia & Egypt to avert a military conflict this June 2017. But at the cost of massive military and political concessions. The Middle East actors are dramatically accelerating their Arms Race to wage a major war, but they will be forced by the West to talk about peace and sign a Peace Treaty. Jerusalem is most likely to be at the center of a conflict, that will pave the way for a Peace Treaty. By war or peace treaty, whoever can help regain control over Jerusalem will be able to establish extensive leadership over the Middle East. But all signs point to a deceitful and short period of peace. In this main scenario Europe is by far the most vulnerable power.
Christian Takushi MA UZH, Macro Economist & Strategist, 2 June 2017, Zurich-Geneva, Switzerland. Text adapted for the public on 4 June 2017.
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