A voice warning of major changes ahead
Based on his personal research using this method, Christian Takushi is warning for a number of years about the:
- Convergence of Geopolitical and Macroeconomic trends
- Acceleration of the Convergence through rise of Emerging Markets
- Other forces joining this Convergence (shifts in religion, society, antisemitism, energy, world climate, earth’s geomagnetic field etc)
Over the past 12 years, Takushi’s lectures, interviews and articles have drawn attention to significantly underestimated geopolitical-economic risks. Specifically, he has been warning that the increased convergence of geopolitical and macroeconomic trends are being accelerated by the rise of emerging powers. Their assertive foreign policies are going unchecked by the West, adding geopolitical friction to their growing macroeconomic challenges.
Despite the increased crises and market corrections of recent years Takushi sees Western decision-makers underestimating the global shock-waves of the convergence process in the near future. Just as investors bet on higher long-term bond yields and a strengthening G7 real economy absorbs liquidity, risk premiums may experience a powerful reset. Should the recovery falter, deflationary shocks from Europe, Japan and China will overlap and leave the West even more vulnerable to the geopolitical destabilization underway. As the Labor Force of China begins to shrink in 2014 China joins South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Germany and many other economies where Demographics have entered a multi-year deflationary process of deterioration (in aging, dependency ratios and health care costs). Thus, the world faces both growing deflationary and inflationary risks.
The financial crisis in emerging economies led first to severe liquidity squeezes & economic stress, but it has subsequently intensified rampant nationalism and assertive foreign policy action. The accelerated geopolitical frictions – simultaneously – in East Asia, Middle East, Eastern Europe and Latin America are allowing a rapprochement between China & Russia (along with Brazil, Venezuela and Argentina) and the fast–track advance of their geo-strategic interests. The result will be a severe security deterioration in Europe, Middle East, South East Asia and possibly the Americas.
Time frame of possible maximum friction?
Monitoring aggregated macroeconomic data and geopolitical trends, Takushi concludes that the global convergence of macroeconomic & geopolitical trends is advancing faster than expected and exposing a vulnerable and unprepared Europe. An unprecedented confluence of events lies ahead of us between 2104 and 2017 – a Super Crisis can’t be ruled out. He discusses challenges as well as opportunities.
> Recommended next page: Geopolitical and macroeconomic trends