Christian was invited by the CFA Society in June 2014 to give an update of his Geopolitical Macro Research – in Zurich and Geneva. He points to the growing convergence of global macro and geopolitical forces. New emerging powers are asserting their interests ever more aggressively and are going largely unchecked by the West. While people talk about Russia and China, Christian tells people to watch Turkey! During this Global Transition (which started at the end of the Cold War) large Emerging Nations are accelerating this convergence process that should end up in a New Equilibrium. The USA is still a formidable force, nevertheless, more confrontations, wars and a major global crisis are likely before we get there. Christian’s Geopolitical Macroeconomic Research shows frictions should reach highest levels during period 2015 to 2017. With 4 lunar eclipses falling into Jewish Holy Days during 2014-2015, Middle East tensions (Sunni, Shia; Iran, Israel) may escalate towards October 2015. The alliance between Turkey and Iran has been born in mutual dependence: Turkey has the economic power while Iran has the religious influence over the masses in the Middle East. But to allow Iranian oil & gas to flow through Turkey and reach Romanian hubs – from where it can one day supply NATO & EU nations – pipelines have to be laid in Syria and Northern Iraq. Current Iraq is aligned with NATO, Syria is contested still. Out of fear of Russia, Europe is aligning herself closer with an ever unstable Middle East. To this deteriorating Security Situation of Europe has to be added that China, Japan and other Asian nations are exporting more deflation to Europe. Workforce implosions in Asia are affecting the world economy.
Due to converging trends on a global scale frictions and tensions between nations should be expected to be most elevated between 2015 and 2017. Thus, multiple types of events are likely over the coming three years.
Geopolitical Macroeconomic Research is highly complex and subject to changing forces and revisions. All opinions expressed here are his own and reflect the current stage of his analysis. No person should interpret any statement made here as a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. This seminar was a follow-up of a CFA speech given by Christian in June 2013.