Title of Message: “Possible Double Surprise at US Presidential Elections 2016″: A Trump victory and one by a bigger margin than few would expect”.
Takushi points to an unusual late convergence of economic and religious factors that could favor Mr. Trump in the Rust Belt, South and Mid West. 15 states like Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire .. also still allow for registration today. In these regions many White evangelicals and African American Christians are shifting to Trump late in the race. This phenomenon could hand Trump a surprising victory. Christian Takushi, Macro Economist, Switzerland. Video recorded on 8 Nov 2016, 8:15 PM CET (Geneva) or 2:15 PM Eastern Time (NYC)
Additional notes: Takushi remarks in general that mainstream media and even political analysts have paid little attention to the 70 million Americans that are not expected to vote today, many of whom could still register today in 15 states. Some of them highly contested or blue states, also around or in the Rust Belt. The revelations of the past 13 days could motivate many of those otherwise disillusioned citizens to register and cast a vote today; specially if they live in a region hit hard by the exodus of manufacturing jobs and they attend one of the many churches where the mood towards Mr. Trump has warmed up in recent weeks. A late shift among White evangelicals, African American evangelicals and some Jewish groups towards Mr. Trump could make a difference in Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin etc. So late in the race the shift among evangelicals alone would probably not suffice, but in conjunction with the revelations about Clinton over the past two weeks and the possibility to still register today in certain states is something that could tip the balance.
Especially because it has some momentum. The US political coverage of evangelicals (Whites and African Americans) in my opinion does not properly catch the shift we have noticed. The Evangelical electorate as a whole accounts for roughly 26% of voters. They are a heterogenous group, though, and not all of them are embracing Trump.
Something we have been warning for over 12 months:
Christian Takushi MA UZH, Macro Economist & Strategist, released 8 November 2016 while Americans in the East Coast were casting their votes.
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