The West may end up harvesting what it has sown. Yes, China feeds and uses North Korea, but the West resorted for over two decades to appeasement in self interest. Western democracies are becoming increasingly unable to deal with tough issues. They simply postpone them as no elected leader wants a crisis with a high human toll on his watch, although they know, the problem will only get bigger. It is a collective failure of the West as well as South Korea and Japan. Just a few weeks ago Seoul forbid the USA to deploy THAAD missile-shield batteries in order to appease China and North Korea. Tokyo only woke up to the cruel reality last week when sirens alerted the shocked population. Just like Hitler used the economic interests and Pacifist nature of Western leaders to his own advantage, the North Korean leadership has played out South Korea, Japan and the West – knowing well that no Western leader would dare to confront China. Why shouldn’t China and Russia also advance their legitimate national interests with the means at their disposal.While most people in Europe have been overwhelmed by fears of an impending collapse of the EURO and EU, I have been warning of the exact opposite. Even if the EU should break down, they shall serve as the stepping stone of more economic & political power concentration. A European Super State is coming. That is the reason why between December 2016 and April 2017 I was one of the few economists and geopolitical analysts expecting a shift to the liberal Left by France and Germany in 2017. Consensus in Europe was overwhelmingly worried about the shift to the Far Right in both nations and subsequently the EU. In fact there is a secular rise of the far right, but as a minority still. Not big enough to form or shape a government. But its rise is energising the established political parties and leading them further to the liberal-left policy camp.
Over the past 7 years I have been warning and pointing decision makers to the ongoing economic convergence, and recently about the unfolding political convergence which has joined the first process. I expect that process to be well advanced between 2022 and 2024. After that social-religious-cultural convergence will be pushed forward as the logical next step. That means a unifying culture will be spread by mass & social media at a speed we probably never saw before. This is the longer term pattern of the Great Convergence I have been addressing at many speeches in recent years:
1st phase: Economic convergence from 1998 to 2008 – responding to the Asian Crisis and the Tech Bubble burst
2nd phase: Economic & Political Convergence from 2009 to 2024 – responding to the Great Financial Crisis ( we are in the midst of it, and that explains the tremendous opposition that new governments in the UK and the USA are getting from almost other major economy and multilateral organisation (UN, EU, OECD etc.)
3rd phase: Convergence process from 2025 onwards to accelerate way beyond politics and business. This is likely to follow a major conflict and is likely to include some kind of convergence between major world religions.
Given the extraordinary risk-adjusted gains in equities over the past 9 years, I advise my readers to pause & reflect upon their investment strategies, risk tolerance and business-investment goals. Also about their lives as a whole, because more likely than wars and unprecedented natural events is that Big Changes lie ahead.
Nevertheless, I also warn against excessive pessimism. Too many geopolitical & political analysts and even religious leaders see only doom and gloom. I don’t agree with such a univariate outlook of negativity. One of the reasons many political and geopolitical experts are invariably pessimistic for the future is that they overlook the gathering strength of the world economy, the many possible technological breakthroughs in the coming years and the co-existence of parallel scenarios. There are always possible positive scenarios ahead of us: even in 2017 and 2018. Those scenarios might be secondary and subsidiary to the current main scenario for now, but probabilities can change. Every responsible economic and geopolitical/political forecaster has to continually question his or her main scenario (main forecast), and be able to drop it if new evidence suggests so. Thus, even if our world is vulnerable and there are multiple imminent risks, a major crisis is not a “must”. Such a global event needs a trigger, and such a thing is hard to predict.
There is a valid concern that too many forecasters are focusing all their evidence-gathering to support their already established view or outlook of the world or their opponents. What they see and comment is true, but they unfortunately screen away facts that oppose their view. Sadly, both established institutions (i.e. media, universities, think tanks etc.) and alternative news blogs are resorting to a similar pattern of selective observation. They all have their well-meaning goals, but they are advancing a narrative.
Another reason for optimism is that even if the world is in a secular or structural process of deterioration, a limited period of improvement is not only possible, but also likely. It has happened before in human history. Complex processes do not evolve in a straight line. As I have said before, the world economy is much more resilient than people acknowledge. Free markets tend to adjust and re-engineer themselves. It is often the intervention of policy makers that distorts prices and Terms of Trade, laying the ground for massive economic failures. The US government tampering with the housing market combined with extremely loose monetary policy led to the Sub-prime* disaster. Governments have also promoted Big Firms and allowed them to become huge oligopolies – that has eroded competition and the capitalistic free market fibre. The capitalistic Free Market economy is based on atomistic competition; meaning no competitor is dominant and all competitors are price-takers. Thus, I am convinced that the world economy would be even healthier, more adaptable and growing faster today if governments had not “advantaged” the formation of oligopolies at the expense of small and mid-sized firms. Society needs a balance of big and small firms. The amazing thing is that despite our governments’ preference for oligopolistic markets and reduced competition, the World Economy is the bright spot in an otherwise gloomy Big Picture.
Barring a new negative development, readers should be encouraged by the fact that in a time when the political process and media have become extremely ideological and belligerent, the economy is a bright spot in today’s world.
Christian Takushi MA UZH
Geopolitical Strategist,
Switzerland – 7 August 2017
General Disclaimer for all our research: We provide geopolitical-political analysis only. We decline requests for investment advice and asset management services. Global Geopolitical Macro Analysis is highly complex and subject to sudden changes. No analytical method is without certain disadvantages. We may change our outlook within less than 3-6 hours following an event. Global Geopolitical Macro Analysis can be extremely time-sensitive and the first 24 hours after an event are critical for the response of a government, corporation or investor. Because decision makers should weigh different “opportunities & risks” before making any decision, only seasoned decision makers and qualified investors should make use of our geopolitical research and treat them as an additional independent perspective only. No comment on how a geopolitical-political process may affect the economy should in any way be taken as an investment advice or suggestion. Any assessment at the geopolitical or macro level can lead to very different rational reactions, because every nation, company or portfolio has different risk tolerances, assets, goals and restrictions.
Cash: The economist and financial expert Christian Takushi correctly predicted BREXIT and TRUMP’s victory. He says the Middle East faces a major war. He also draws a scenario for the future of Europe in a Cash-Interview
English Translation:
An unprecedented 7 year period (2017-2024) has started in the Middle East. The remembrance of the 6 Day War marks its beginning. What happens when most important historical & religious anniversaries fall in one and the same year in Muslim and Jewish circles of power? 50th anniversary, 70th anniversary, 100th anniversary and 500th anniversary? An acceleration of events
Making 2017 a crucial year for Turkey, Iran, Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon and Israel is the fact that their leaders have been gearing up for this season when a politically-religiously charged 50th anniversary overlaps with another fateful 100th anniversary: 100 years ago this November the Muslim world lost Jerusalem to Christianity, 50 years ago this June they lost Jerusalem to Israel. The burden is on Muslim states to start the process of rewriting history. Much of what we may see in the next few years is powered by this understandable desire of Muslim religious & political leaders to reestablish their influence over Jerusalem, the Middle East and Europe. How it used to be for centuries. Other less religious and prophetic parts of the world can barely grasp this. But Jewish, Arab and Iranian leaders are weighted by the combination of powerful political-religious forces with historical cycles – which remain overlooked by the West for the most part.
Events in the Middle East to gather pace from June 2017 for 7 years – 6 Day War 50th anniversary
We maintain since early 2016 that Fears of a Voter Revolt & Rise of the Far Right in the EU are premature and overdone. Many conservative thinkers were disappointed by our bold forecast, specially during the period July 2016 – April 2017 when EU skeptics abounded and the media drummed up the case that the Far Right was rising relentlessly across Europe. We never agreed. Our analysis showed that both France and Germany would shift further to the liberal-Left camp, making any rise of the Far Right to power impossible. While consensus changed its view after the 1st round in French elections, our position has been the same since Q1 2016: A certain shift to the conservative right in the UK and USA, but a shift to the liberal left in the EU. The EU is reacting to the secular rise of conservative and far right parties.
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You can scroll down to recent Editorials
“After 45 years of a very liberal Policy Mix, a multi-year process of Normalisation in Global Politics and Economics may have started in 2016. Fears of extreme isolation and protectionism by the USA and UK will prove as overdone. We see rather a process of correction towards the mean after an unprecedented period of extremes (from a historical perspective). A protectionist EU has weakened herself economically, politically and militarily along the way. Despite the many risks, the recent BREXIT and TRUMP shocks pose an array of opportunities too … ” By Christian Takushi MA UZH, 3 Dec 2016.
CFA Society Switzerland on 30 May 2016, Zurich. Venue: Thomson Reuters
We pointed to Trump winning the US Elections and to the coming Trump Shock:
Source: Twitter on 7 November 2016
Post Elections Analysis:
A social-religious divide: The day when US Suburbs joined Rural America to defeat the Big Cities. The suburbs and the Rustbelt were the hidden swing states. The results at County Level speak volumes. It is a revolt against Political Correctness, Washington, and the values of Big Cities (LA, SF, NY and Chicago), but also the return of Religion as a factor. All of them tabus to the media. This illustration by the University of Michigan best describes the growing US social-religious divide. BREXIT and TRUMP are a sequential double-shock – We may have to go back to the double shock of the Doolittle Raid on Tokyo and the shocking Battle of Midway during WW2 to find two significant surprise events within one year.
Monitoring other geopolitical Trends in Latin America, Europe and Asia
In vacuum of US leadership in Latin America, Russia & China flex their muscles:
Read more on the geopolitical-economic context of the region in our 5 Jan 2016 report.
On 31 Jan 2017 we downgrade our positive Outlook for BRITAIN:
The decline of Freedom of Speech in Europe may foreshadow its Strategic Decline
by Christian Takushi on 21 Dec 2016: On terror attacks in Germany and the possible overreaction of Europe to BREXIT and Trump.
Subtitle: “Continental Europe is not the USA, Voter Revolt may not repeat in continental Europe in 2017“
As Germany is rocked by the worse terror attack in decades, this is a summary of strategic thoughts.
For years we have been warning that as a result of catastrophic strategic errors by European leaders over three-four decades, Europe’s Security Deterioration may be inexorable. It lays bare that Europe has been led by politicians & administrators that lacked strategic foresight and pushed by lobbying corporate managers. Europe is in a geostrategic trap of her own making.
There have been independent minds that raised questions about the downsides of an European Integration Process that lacked a clear mandate by the people. Instead of broadly informing the pubic and fostering open discussion, Europe favoured an army of think tanks, universities and institutions that shaped public opinion. I believe that it is healthy for a society to have an open competition of liberal, conservative and independent ideas. I personally follow liberal, conservative and independent thinkers – It is truly enriching. For instance, I watch how Fox News and CNN report a US policy issue. I love to draw my own analysis after checking different sources and comparing with my a-priori analysis. Nevertheless, I find that most people are taking most of their information from one newspaper and one TV channel – even decision makers.
In my analysis, the overwhelming dominance of Public Opinion by liberal & pro “big business” political parties is something that led many voters to accept BREXIT. I think that the condescending way members of the political, academic and business establishments talked to the public and about the public simply backfired. A majority of British people rejected the EU membership, despite all the evident risks and threats. Although well-intentioned, such a dominance of mainstream media and financial media by liberal, pro-globalisation and big business interests was increasingly perceived as intolerant of any criticism. Thus, destroying the very image of “tolerance” they have painstakingly built over 30 years. Voters saw this confirmed after BREXIT, when political leaders in London, Paris, Berlin and Brussels rushed to say (I paraphrase) “we were not wrong, our only mistake was not to communicate in a stronger way”.Leading the leading media channels and state media to increase its control of the narrative in the news even more. That has only contributed to the further erosion of public trust in the Press. Those who were critical of the status quo were generally deemed fearful, intolerant, racist, uneducated or poor. Had this been avoided, BREXIT may have not taken place.
And I am not here to single out liberal forces in Europe, many of those pro-Big Business groups are the conservative parties. In many ways, Conservative Parties have let down the Middle Class and many of their constituencies. Yes, In Europe, the almost mass influx of migrants benefitted both the established Liberal and Conservative Parties: Liberal Parties welcomed their new voters, while Conservative Parties secured further support from Big Businesses. The latter benefitted from the cheaper cost of labor induced by migration. Thus, while millions of migrants flooded some European states, thousands of factories and millions of jobs went overseas. Along the way established parties and bigger businesses benefitted. Thus, rather than reforming an almost 40 year old Liberal Policy Mix to address its increasingly visible flaws, the political establishment sought to dominate public opinion.
Europe is in decline and this cannot be explained by the above alone. As usual, many human endeavours begin with great ideals and purposes. The stellar rise of Humanism & Political Correctness may have played a role in suffocating public debate about the shortcomings of our status quo. Political Correctness may have contributed to making many people ever more “sensitive” and unable to deal with ambiguity or criticism. Western European society has de facto eroded the Freedom of Speech in areas that are critical of the mainstream narrative. In all fairness, media and politicians seem to be afraid of offending any group of people. Which is understandable.
The lack of fresh ideas and introspection is exemplified by this: The same experts that explained viewers why BREXIT and TRUMP would never occur, were asked by Mainstream Media to give an outlook for what comes next for Europe.
If I may oversimplify the past two decades: Peace seeking leaders dismantled Europe’s strategic military, while enthused eurocrats led an unrelenting EU’s territorial expansion and erection of a protectionist Fortress Europe (despite calls of free trade). All this has weaken Europe’s competitiveness. The results are mixed: While big businesses have benefitted greatly, the middle class has stagnated. Only the most competitive Nordic countries benefitted as the common currency became endemically weaker than their former currencies. The territorial expansion of the EU into the East emboldened Russia’s nationalists, which saw their motherland increasingly encircled. But can the EU defend herself against Russia? No.
In my view, the EU is today by far the most vulnerable major power in the world: economically, politically, militarily and security wise. Unable to defend herself, the EU says it relies on NATO, which is to mean the USA. But NATO – as a growing number of US military leaders view it – is a highly asymmetric defence block. Trump is simply speaking out what many generals don’t dare to say anymore under the current US Administration. Fast forward to December 2016, EU leaders are boldly lecturing and defying the new incoming US administration, on which Europe’s security depends.
Despite the risks and threats, Britons may have had more strategic foresight than generally thought. Somehow, 75 years after the Battle for England, Britain decided again to defy the Continental Forces stemmed against it. Maybe, because staying bound & entangled to a bureaucratic EU was a larger leap into the unknown than a messy divorce. Many observers say the wave of populism will sweep from the UK and USA over to Europe – something I disagree with. The political landscapes in Europe will be shaken (we think the AfD could get 12-20% of the votes), but at this juncture I doubt it will be enough to change course for Europe. As long as Germany and France support the mainstream parties and thinkers that led them into the EU, changes will be shy of radical, and the EU will remain vulnerable and in a slow-motion decline: gasping from one crisis to the other. It is not about liberal or conservative – every movement needs reformation after some time.
The result of Europe’s Policy Mix has led to the destruction of vast segments of Europe’s Middle Class with the subsequent Political Polarisation and growing systemic risks to Political Stability. The explosion in regulation in the name of customer protection did the rest in advancing big oligopolies. oddly, many Europeans believe that the European Union is a bedrock of Democracy and Free Trade. But in many ways the EU is undemocratic and unaccountable. Additionally, the EU’s hailed Free Trade is actually a mix of Protectionism and Managed Trade rather than true Free Trade.
European citizens can’t simply blame their leaders, though. The untold truth is that most European citizens on the continent are too risk-averse to induce a political change – this being specially true of Germany and France. On the one hand, many have become too dependent on an ever growing State and State-run pensions & programs. On the other hand, Europeans like the “protection” that the EU promises them.
I personally see the risk of excessive information warfare from the left and the right. Even governments and state media are participating in this troublesome development. We should not mind that state media is dominant in Europe – at federal and regional levels, but can state sponsored media be truly independent? I see Fake News and News Bias as worrisome developments. Fake news by groups on the far left and far right are not making the democratic process healthier. Some mainstream media are now warning people about Fake News, and rightly so, but are not pointing to their own subtle systematic News Bias – which in my opinion is not much less dangerous.
To make things worse, Europe’s establishment in politics, media and academia furiously label any critics of their Policy Mix as populists, racists and isolationists. While those people exist, they are a small part of those voting for change. This environment is flaring up the rise of extremist groups – which in my view will fail to grab power in France and Germany for years to come anyway. I ascertain that most people critical of the EU policies want simply a certain degree of moderation – a return to the mean, not to the far right. But the clash of News Bias and Fake News produces more polarisation. They are now making people aware of Fake News, but are not pointing to their own subtle systematic News Bias – which in my opinion is not much less dangerous.
Our research shows that while there are extremist minorities at work in Europe, millions of normal citizens wish simply a course correction or normalisation.
Even in the aftermath of the tragic terror attacks in France, Belgium and now Germany, European leaders’ diagnosis as follows (I am simplifying)
They are not wrong, but they fail to address the main causes. Neither politicians nor so-called experts dare to acknowledge the real source of the radicalisation. As a result, Europe’s economic, military and security deterioration will only gather pace. I ascertain that Religion is by far the most underestimated and misunderstood geopolitical factor of our time.
While our research points to a slow-motion deterioration of the EU and its eventual implosion, we see the rise of a European Super State or Federation in the long run. What the experts won’t tell you: The best friend of Berlin-Paris-Brussels is ongoing crisis: EU leaders need unending crises to weaken the national states and to induce them to freely hand over their sovereignties in exchange for bail-outs and protection. The migrant crisis is a good example of this strategy of Integration through the back door. This is straightforward geopolitical-macroeconomic reasoning (I reject to work with conspiracy theories).
Just like the United Nations, the European Union is not as unprofessional or incapable as many critics say. They are quite a genius indeed. The EU simply allows crises to rise and simmer, because this helps them achieve their undeclared well-meaning goal: Total Power Concentration, for the good of humanity of course. What I criticise as an independent analyst is that they don’t openly talk about it. nor would they let citizens vote over it. It of course sounds better to say: all we want is Unity and Freedom. With most people following the narrative of mainstream media and others reading only superficial Social Media “bits”, the EU and UN are making good progress towards their respective goals of Power Concentration.
After promoting millions of immigrants to move countries, removing borders, weakening the Rule of Law and allowing big firms to become gigantic Oligopolies, the EU will tell you that individual nation states can’t cope with today’s challenges. Thus, overwhelmed nation states have to come together into Super States, of which the EU is the first one. In a not too distant future, individual nation states may exist only on paper.
Christian Takushi MA UZH,Macro Economist & Strategist, 21 Dec 2016, Zurich-Geneva, Switzerland.
(shortened 9 Oct 2017)
General Disclaimer for all our research: We provide geopolitical-political analysis only. We decline requests for investment advice and asset management services. Global Geopolitical Macro Analysis is highly complex and subject to sudden changes. No analytical method is without certain disadvantages. We may change our outlook within less than 3-6 hours following an event. Global Geopolitical Macro Analysis can be extremely time-sensitive and the first 24 hours after an event are critical for the response of a government, corporation or investor. Because decision makers should weigh different “opportunities & risks” before making any decision, only seasoned decision makers and qualified investors should make use of our geopolitical research and treat them as an additional independent perspective only. No comment on how a geopolitical-political process may affect the economy should in any way be taken as an investment advice or suggestion. Any assessment at the geopolitical or macro level can lead to very different rational reactions, because every nation, company or portfolio has different risk tolerances, assets, goals and restrictions.
Geopolitical Economics is a registered corporation in Switzerland. The commercial name is protected under Swiss Law. After years of developing methodologies to integrate Geopolitics and Macroeconomics, Christian Takushi developed the term Geopolitical Economics, sharing it with the public in order to facilitate more research and discussions. The term expresses the growing influence of geopolitical, political, military, religious and other external factors on the Global Economy – with its feedback loops.
This new approach to Geopolitical Analysis is free of conspiracy theories, ideology and judgement: All nations pursue their national interests with all means at their disposal, just as corporations do. It is, in a way, an economist’s empirical-oriented and ideology-free approach to political analysis. Applied at a global scale and aggregate level, the Western linear-logical way of thinking is complemented by the Oriental circular worldview to improve results. With Geopolitics encompassing the political process, demographics, religion and geography among other resources, Geopolitical Economics explains many of the trends of a world in transition
We would like to thank the many professionals, scholars and experts that are contributing to advance research at this strategic juncture for the world economy and the geopolitical landscape.
Geopolitical Economics Ltd., Geopolitical Economics S.A. and Geopolitical Economics AG are protected names.
“Your article is fascinating reading. One of the best posts I have ever read. I want to read your other articles going forward.” By Joseph M. Pimbley Ph.D. Physics, Principal at Maxwell Consulting, New York
“Gifted with a unique maverick approach … Christian Takushi is today a forerunner of a new economics, geopolitical economics. A new movement of thinkers and achievers has begun.” By Ludmila Morozova-Buss, M.S. In Mathematics, Management, Technology and Entrepreneurship Roundtable Owner, Berlin
“Independent thinking has become a rare and important source of information. I’m very thankful for Christian Takushi & his team’s research and opinions over the last 20 years – he predicted BREXIT and Trump.” By Dr. Claude Schmidt, Swiss Economist & Investment Banker, 3 Dec 2016, Zurich
Recent speeches by Christian Takushi, a Macro Economist & Strategist with over 27 years experience in Investment Management:
1. Convergence of Geopolitical Factors may increase demand for safe heavens. SNB may introduce partial capital restrictions)
2. Return of old conflicts in East Asia, South Asia & Middle East as imploding Labor Forces lead China, Russia, Japan, Thailand, Korea .. to deflect geopolitically (Unprecedented Arms Race)
3. Crisis Period of 2017-2024 in the Middle East. War or sweeping change is likely in the Middle East
4. US-Iran Deal is likely to lead to two wars in Middle East. Israel to sign a Peace Treaty & rebuild Solomon’s Temple (The 3rd Temple)
5. Center of Christianity shifts to Asia, Africa and Latin America – China could become largest Christian nation (i.e. Christian population exceeds 300 Million)
6. China fails to overtake the USA as superpower by her own means. USA to power ahead after 2025 if it can avert natural-political-security disasters. China gravitates towards Germany
7. Debasing of paper-currencies may lead to Global Currency Reforms, Nationalisations & Wealth transfers
8. Accelerated Phasing Out of Democracy and Market Economy on a global scale. Martial Law & State of Emergency could be enforced in Western nations
9. Large-scale preparations for extraordinary Natural Catastrophes. Geophysical events add to Asset & Value destructions across Northern hemisphere. 1/3 of all world assets could be wiped out
10. Germany rises to challenge the USA. Russia and China move geostrategically closer to Germany – Arctic route & Indian Ocean become game changers
11. Converging crises and wars overwhelm individual nation states, paving the way for the rise of Super States on all continents. A European Federation (Christian-Islamic Super State) could rise from demise of EU. Super States and giant Oligopolies could converge to global Monopolies.
12. Period of Global Transition and Great Uncertainty that started in 1999 ends as a new Global Equilibrium with unprecedented concentrations of powers sets in. On its quest for Peace, a war-weary humanity may embrace a Global Government.
Christian Takushi MA UZH has been warning of these events & trends since 2010 at numerous speeches.
A summary of the up to 24 Global Geopolitical Factors we monitor.
Our GLOBAL RISK OVERLAP MODEL (GROM) is relevant for governments, multinational firms and investors.
During Spring of 2015 our Global Risk Barometer reached the level of 9, it receded to 8.75 in Q4. In Dec 2016 the Barometer declined again contrary to the uproar by consensus and media. In August 2017 our Barometer climbed to 9.5, the highest on record. Conditions are present for a crisis, but since there are multiple possible triggers, timing a crisis eruption is difficult. That is why we continually monitor multiple factors and decline to try to ‘call’ a crisis. One thing is clear – Europe is particularly vulnerable.
We expect the Global Risk level to remain elevated throughout the (2nd) Transition Period 2017-2024. People should ready contingency plans for their businesses and families. And no longer focus on crises alone, but coping with sweeping changes.
Our continuous service to businesses. It indicates the LEVEL of ALERTNESS they should apply to meet the RISK of DISRUPTIONS to business operations (LEV-AL is a DEFCON for the economy)
Our LEV-AL system does not forecast a risk event, it rather indicates to businesses the level o readiness or contingency plans they should have in order to overcome possible disruptions. Thus, risk-conscious businesses should to be one step ahead. This covers only the geopolitical perspective of Crisis Preparation – Decision makers should weigh different perspectives and get independent advice.
Christian Takushi, Macro Economist & Strategist, 15 Oct 2017 – Switzerland. Today, voters went to the polls in Austria and in Northern Germany. After seeing the reaction by consensus, I’d like to put the first results this evening into perspective. No doubt, Austrian voters delivered a “Denkzettel” (warning) to the…
By Christian Takushi MA UZH, 8 Oct 2017 – Switzerland. Putting the current crisis in Catalonia into historical and geopolitical perspective. The Catalonian Crisis is affecting Spain, the EU and may be reaching as far as the Middle East. It has come at a vulnerable moment on the global geopolitical landscape. The violent…
By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist, Switzerland – 28 Sep 2017. Dear reader A serious political crisis may be unfolding in Germany. Aware that many analysts are not acquainted enough with the German political process, Berlin is trying to put it out before the world takes notice. They tell us that…
By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist & Strategist – 23 Sep 2017 – Switzerland. Conservative anti immigration AfD advances the most in last few days Could German voters hand a surprise in German elections this Sunday Sep 24? I am not pointing at Merkel’s CDU-CSU Christian center-right coalition missing the first…
Christian Takushi, Macro Economist & Strategist, 9 Sep 2017 – Switzerland Dear reader (we have updates on Global Risk, US Tax Bill and North Korea) This Thursday our second Risk Model (LEV AL) was upgraded to Level 3 and it might stay there until mid October. The model calls for an “elevated level…
A short editorial comment by Christian Takushi on 5 Sep 2017 The West may end up harvesting what it has sown. Many fingers are being pointed to China to blame her for the status quo. Yes, China feeds and uses North Korea, but the West resorted for over two decades…
By Christian Takushi MA UZH, 7 Aug 2017 – Switzerland. In this post we point to a a very vulnerable geopolitical global landscape during this Fall 2017, but also to a resilient real economy as some positive secondary scenarios are gathering pace. Policy Makers may have become a major Systemic…
https://www.cash.ch/news/politik/oekonom-christian-takushi-europa-wird-zum-superstaat-1076988 Cash Magazine Interview with Christian Takushi, June 15, 2017 – Translation from German into English by a writer in CA, USA. “Europe to become a Super State” The economist and financial expert Christian Takushi correctly predicted BREXIT and TRUMP’s victory. He says the Middle East faces a major war. In a Cash-Interview he also draws a…
Convergence of significant anniversaries puts all parties before choice of war or odd alliances .. By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist & Strategist, 2 Jun 2017 -Switzerland. In a nutshell, the Middle East has entered a tremendously significant period that starts this June 2017 and is likely to last 7 years….
By David Schane, Oberlin, Ohio – USA, 30 May 2017 I write with concern about the CBO’s recent scoring of the revised AHCA bill that the US House of Representatives passed. While readers may have different views about Obamacare, the CBO’s determination that 23 million fewer Americans would be insured under…
By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist & Geopolitical Strategist, 24 March 2017, Switzerland (released to the public on 22 April 2017 adapted) Humiliated by 2016 failures, Consensus is overemphasizing US-EU political risks. It understates geopolitical War Risk building up and the impact of Deregulation. Ironically, the EU risks shifting further left,…
Short Video Clip with Geopolitical Outlook after US Strikes on Syria (April 2017) Christian Takushi addresses the US air strike on Syria and 3 geopolitical factors that consensus is underestimating: 1) Trump’s defining moment, 2) Iran could unleash War in Aug-Sep 2017, a byproduct of US-Iran Deal and Turkey remembering…
