(only a fraction of our geopolitical research is available to the public on this website)

Cash Magazine Interview with Christian Takushi June 15, 2017 – Translation into English is available. Title: “Europe to become a Super State” 

Cash: The economist and financial expert Christian Takushi correctly predicted BREXIT and TRUMP’s victory. He says the Middle East faces a major war. He also draws a scenario for the future of Europe in a Cash-Interview

Editorial: Events in the Middle East to gather pace 

Significant anniversary puts all parties before choice of war or odd alliances ..

For months we have warned of the acceleration of events in the Middle East ahead of the 50th anniversary of the 6 Day War. Few know that war was itself the Arab response to the 50th anniversary of the Balfourt Declaration which paved the way for the re-birth of the state of Israel on its ancient land. Much of thinking by Oriental decision makers is cyclical, historical and religion/honor inspired.

After having informed our clients we’ll release to the public a special summarised Geopolitical Outlook over the next 30 hours, just before the 50th Anniversary of the 6 Day War (5-10 June 1967).

Takushi has been invited by the CFA Society to give a speech in Lausanne on June 13th 2017 at noon. Non CFA members are also welcome. An extensive Q&A session will take place.  http://swiss.cfa/Lists/Events%20Calendar/DispForm.aspx?ID=2418

The fact that in less than 36 hours the inferior Israeli tank brigades could utterly wipe out all Egyptian tank divisions – destroying over 700 modern Soviet tanks – is not a lesser impossibility than the surprise raid by the Israeli Air Force that practically destroyed the entire Egyptian Air Force on the ground – before they could take off. Syria and Egypt had prepared meticulously for this war since they lost the 1st Arab-Israeli War of 1948 and the Sinai conflict. The Russian ground-air missiles should have wiped out the Israeli Air Force (another patchwork of second hand items), but a most unusual convergence of events played out in Israeli favor. Originally military experts said the Egyptian High Command did all wrong, and the Israelis did all right – which is to a large extent true. The Israelis used their utter inferiority to their advantage. One Israeli tank commander that survived the ferocious Sinai tank battles said “we knew this was life or death, .. but a (superior) enemy can be shocked when you never stop”. In recent years, more military scholars acknowledge that the shocking speed and gallantry of the Israeli tankers and fighter pilots – backed by an edge in intelligence – cannot fully explain what unfolded in those 6 days.

A fateful 50th anniversary overlaps with another fateful 100th anniversary: In other (less religious and less prophetic) parts of the world, the 6 Day War would be laid to rest. But Jews and Arabs are weighted by the religious, astrological and historical patterns at work – which remain mostly overlooked by Western scholars. This year the Moslem World also remembers the 100th anniversary of the defeat of German-Turkish armies in the Judean Hills and the Negev, which led to the return of Jerusalem to Christianity in November 2017 (i.e. British Expeditionary Forces led by Gen. Allenby in WW1). That marked the end of 673 years of Moslem control of Jerusalem – a disaster that ushered the end of the Ottoman Empire (last Great Caliphate) in 1922. A dark chapter that Turkey, Iran and Arab leaders want to re-write between 2017 and 2022.

Politics will be able to mobilise all peoples involved: The great religious zeal of Arabs and Israelis heightens the inexplicable series of disasters and miracles during those fateful 6 long days. Add to it the political necessity of rising Middle Eastern powers (Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia etc) to avenge the humiliating outcomes of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd Arab-Israeli Wars. This to secure their leadership of the Muslim world. In the deceitful quest for Securing Peace in our Time, President Trump is risking a similarly controversial and fateful move to Obama’s: Just as Obama set the Middle East on path for war to appease and strengthen Iran, President Trump is appeasing Saudi Arabia & Egypt to avert a military conflict this June 2017. But at the cost of massive military and political concessions. The Middle East actors are dramatically accelerating their Arms Race to wage a major war, but they will be forced by the West to talk about peace and sign a Peace Treaty. Jerusalem is most likely to be at the center of a conflict, that will pave the way for a Peace Treaty. By war or peace treaty, whoever can help regain control over Jerusalem will be able to establish extensive leadership over the Middle East. But all signs point to a deceitful and short period of peace. In this main scenario Europe is by far the most vulnerable power.

Christian Takushi MA UZH, Macro Economist & Strategist, 2 June 2017, Zurich-Geneva, Switzerland. Text adapted for the public on 4 June 2017. 

General Disclaimer: Global Macro and Geopolitical Analysis are highly complex and subject to sudden changes. No analytical method is without certain disadvantages. We may change our 3-pronged outlook within less than 3-6 hours following an event or data release. Global geopolitical macro analysis can be extremely time-sensitive and the first 24 hours after an event are critical for the response of a government, corporation, pension or portfolio. Only qualified investors and seasoned decision makers should make use of our geopolitical macro reports and treat them as an additional independent perspective. Every investor should weigh different perspectives as well as “opportunities & risks” before making any investment decision. Not all our reports, research and intelligence is published here. What we release here is delayed and adapted. The research & views we post here for public access are aimed at fostering research exchange (to improve our assessment) and helping decision makers adapt their long term & strategic planning to changing realities, not for short term decisions. If you are not a qualified or professional investor, you should get professional advice before taking any investment decisions.

Recent posts:

We maintain since early 2016 that Fears of a Voter Revolt & Rise of the Far Right in the EU are premature and overdone. On April 22 we released to the public our Geopolitical Outlook from 24 March 2017:

Quarterly Geopolitical Outlook: EU may shift left not right, War in Aug-Sep likely, Consensus off again

Recent Editorial from 14 Mar 2017

Voter Revolt in the EU is likely to fail – The EU could shift further to a liberal-left course in 2018

***********

You can scroll down to recent Editorials 

Global Geopolitical Macroeconomic Outlook:

Released to the public on 19 Oct 2016

Focus on how the BREXIT aftermath is weighing on US elections, German-Turkish relations and the fight for the US Supreme Court. Ironically, under a Clinton administration our independent research sees a higher likelihood for large scale wars.

Quarterly Global Geopolitical Macro Outlook: Brexit weighs on US elections, Germany, Turkey & US Supreme Court

Martial Law may be coming to the West:

16 July 2016 – Switzerland

As some of you may be aware, we have been forewarning of Martial Law to be imposed in many nations, also in the West, in the future. The unprecedented confluence of political, economic, military, religious and geophysical crises & threats is likely to overwhelm many nation states. Many Western democracies are particularly vulnerable. I reiterate my analysis from 2015 that Martial law and even the postponement of Elections cannot be ruled out.

After decades of fostering a system in which (1) the law is no longer enforced for certain groups of people, (2) hypersensitivity & “entitlement thinking” have shaped culture, (3) the middle class has been downgraded, and (4) activist movements have seized media & news channels to shape public opinion, Civil Unrest is only waiting to be ignited. 

The recent highly organised violent paid-for demonstrations, racial/religious tensions, and planned killing of police officers may be only the foreshadows of what lies ahead. 

by Christian Takushi MA UZH, Macro Economist & Strategist, Switzerland, 16 Jul 2016

“After 45 years of a very liberal Policy Mix, a multi-year process of Normalisation in Global Politics and Economics has started. Fears of extreme isolation and protectionism will prove as overdone. We see rather a process of correction towards the mean after an unprecedented period of extremes: removal of borders, erosion of the Rule of Law, overregulation, state-sponsored illegal mass migration and protectionism masked as Free Trade. In fact, the EU has been one of the most protectionist & over-regulated economies in modern history; weakening herself economically, politically and militarily along the way. The decline of the EU and the renaissance of the USA could be bad news for established political parties and lobbying multi-nationals on both sides of the Atlantic. It could be good news for deregulation, competition and capitalism, hence a boost for smaller businesses and firms offering added value. The years of easy profits for big Tech Firms and Multinationals may be over.” By Christian Takushi MA UZH, 3 Dec 2016.

Source: Agefi Newspaper, Geneva – 24 Nov 2016, Page 1 & 13, Markets & Products

CFA Society Switzerland on 30 May 2016, Zurich. Venue: Thomson Reuters

We pointed to Trump winning the US Elections and to the coming Trump Shock:

US Voter revolt: Resurgent Trump wins big – we reiterate a TRUMP SHOCK to the system is coming

Post Elections Analysis:

A social-religious divide: The day when US Suburbs joined Rural America to defeat the Big Cities. The suburbs and the Rustbelt were the hidden swing states. The results at County Level speak volumes. It is a revolt against Political Correctness, Washington, the values of Big Cities (LA, SF, NY and Chicago), but also the return of Religion as a factor. All of them tabus to the media. This illustration by the University of Michigan best describes the growing US social-religious divide. It shows also the magnitude of the political earthquake; a “10 on the political Richter Scale”. You would have to go back to the double shock of the Doolittle Raid on Tokyo and the shocking Battle of Midway during WW2 to find such a similarly significant event that could change the course of America for years to come. 

Monitoring other geopolitical Trends in Latin America, Europe and Asia 

In vacuum of US leadership in Latin America, Russia & China flex their muscles:

Read more on the geopolitical-economic context of the region in our 5 Jan 2016 report.

On 31 Jan 2017 we downgrade our positive Outlook for BRITAIN:

A RECENT STRATEGIC EDITORIAL:

The Death of Freedom of Speech in Europe may foreshadow its inexorable Strategic Decline

by Christian Takushi on 21 Dec 2016: On terror attacks in Germany.

Subtitle: “Continental Europe is not the USA, Voter Revolt may not repeat in continental Europe in 2017“

As Germany is rocked by the worse terror attack in decades, this is a summary of strategic thoughts.

For years we have been warning that as a result of catastrophic strategic errors by European leaders over three-four decades, Europe’s Security Deterioration is inexorable. It lays bare that Europe has been led by politicians & administrators and pushed by lobbying corporate managers. None of which had the necessary strategic foresight at geopolitical-macroeconomic meta levels or even the interest therein. Europe is in a geostrategic trap of her own making. 

That Liberal Policy Mix that impoverished the Middle Class was silently supported by established Conservative parties in Europe & USA 

There have been independent minds that raised questions about the downsides of an European Integration Process that lacked a clear mandate by the people. Instead Europe financed and favoured an army of think tanks, universities and so-called expert institutions that shaped the Consensus, one that its exceedingly liberal media gladly propagated. It is healthy for a society to have an open competition of liberal and conservative ideas. I personally follow liberal, conservative and independent thinker – It is enriching. But in Europe, pro-globalization liberal leaders together with big businesses have gone too far; they have practically taken over the state media, most universities, think tanks and business forums. They actively shape public opinion. Just as we saw before and after the BREXIT vote.

In my analysis, the almost complete dominance of Public Opinion by liberal & pro big business political parties is something that backfired and led many voters to accept BREXIT, i.e. reject the EU membership, despite all the risks and threats. Although well-intentioned, such a dominance of mainstream media and financial media by “liberal-globalist-big business interests” was increasingly perceived as totalitarian and intolerant of any criticism. Thus, destroying the very image of “tolerance” they have painstakingly built for themselves over 30 years. Voters saw this confirmed after BREXIT, when political leaders in London, Paris, Berlin and Brussels rushed to say (I paraphrase) “we were not wrong, our main mistake was not to communicate & spread our ideas in a stronger way”. Leading the leading media channels and state media to increase its control of the narrative in the news even more. That has only contributed to the further erosion of public trust in the Press, because they are now fighting against the stated will of the people.

And I am not here bashing liberal forces in Europe alone, many of those pro-Big Business groups are the conservative parties. Conservative Parties have let down the Middle Class and many of their constituencies. Yes, In Europe, the almost uncontrolled influx of migrants benefitted both the established Liberal and Conservative Parties: Liberal Parties welcomed their new voters, while Conservative Parties rejoiced in the bigger support & funding by Big Businesses. The latter rejoiced in the cheaper cost of labor induced by migration. Thus, while millions of migrants flooded some European states, thousands of factories and millions of jobs went overseas, established parties and bigger businesses benefitted. And we are talking here about part of the Liberal Policy Mix of the past 40 years.

Europe’s decline cannot be explained by the above alone though. The replacement of Europe’s Judeo-Christian values with Humanism & Political Correctness did the rest, making people ever more “sensitive” and unable to deal with ambiguity or criticism. The EU has de facto removed the Freedom of Speech. Mainstream Media interviews mostly those experts that support their narrative and world view. More interested in shaping or controlling Public Opinion than in informing, European media has added to the confusion and lost credibility. In all fairness also, they are afraid of offending any group of people, and of departing from the liberal script that has served them well. We saw this during BREXIT, Syria, the US Elections etc.

The lack of fresh ideas and introspection is exemplified by this: The same experts that explained viewers why BREXIT and TRUMP would never occur, were asked by Mainstream Media to give an outlook for what comes next for Europe. But I will not spare the citizens – the majority in Europe tolerate or consume this.

A short strategic review

Well-meaning pacifists dismantled Europe’s strategic military, while enthused globalists led to the unrelenting EU’s territorial expansion and the erection of a protectionist Fortress Europe that has weakened its competitiveness, benefitted Big Businesses and impoverished its population. Only the most competitive Nordic countries benefitted as the Euro became endemically weaker than their former currencies. The EU expanded territorially aggressively into the East, encircled Russia and kind of supported a Regime Change in Ukraine. All of which emboldened Russia’s nationalists. Can the EU defend herself against Russia? No.

The EU is today by far the most vulnerable economy in the world: economically, politically, militarily and security wise. Unable to defend herself, the EU says it relies on NATO, which is to mean the USA. But NATO – as a growing number of US military leaders view it – is a highly asymmetric defence block. Trump is simply speaking out what many generals don’t dare to say anymore under the current US Administration. Fast forward to December 2016, EU leaders are boldly lecturing and defying the new incoming US administration, on which Europe’s security depends.

Despite the risks and threats, Britons had the strategic foresight that they needed to exit a sinking ship. 75 years after the Battle for England, Britain decided again to defy the Continental Forces stemmed against it. Maybe, because staying bound & entangled to a bureaucratic EU was a larger leap into the unknown than a messy divorce. Many observers say the wave of populism will sweep from the UK and USA over to Europe. But the use of the demeaning term populism shows they are disconnected from citizens’ reality, and we are skeptical that French & Germans will show that much ruthless introspection. The political landscapes in Europe will be shaken (we think the AfD could get 12-20% of the votes), but at this juncture I doubt it will be enough to set a new course for Europe. As long as these two nations support the established parties that led them into the EU, changes will be shy of radical, and the EU will remain vulnerable and in a slow-motion decline: gasping from one crisis to the other.

France and Germany may be tired of 4 decades of ultra liberal policies, but …

The result of Europe’s four decades of an ultra-liberal Policy Mix and Protectionism has been the destruction of vast segments of Europe’s Middle Class with the subsequent Political Polarisation and growing systemic risks to Political Stability. The explosion in regulation did the rest in advancing giant oligopolies. To make things worse, Europeans are misled to believe that the European Union stands for Democracy and Free Trade. The EU is not only undemocratic and unaccountable, it ushered a period of Protectionism and Managed Trade (so called Free Trade bilateral agreements). Few firms can hire the best of the best, most are restricted to hire EU nationals.

European citizens can’t simply blame their leaders, though. The untold truth is that most European citizens on the continent are too risk-averse to induce a political change – this being specially true of Germany and France. On the one hand, they have become utterly dependent on an ever growing State and State-run pensions & programs. On the other hand, Europeans like the deceptive “protection” the EU promises them. Even if this has only led to Europe’s economic decline.

Europe labels those that want a course correction: “populists” 

To make things worse, Europe’s establishment in politics, media and academia furiously label any critics of their 4 decades-long ultra liberal course as populists, racists and isolationists. In short, any one wanting a course correction is equaled to varying degrees with “uneducated extremists“. Thus, the only mistake EU leaders and media acknowledge is that they have not informed or educated voters enough, leading them to intensify their Information Offensive, which independent observers now perceive as propaganda. They are now making people aware of Fake News, but are not pointing to their own systematic News Bias – which in my opinion is the more subtle and dangerous of the two. Our research shows that while there are extremist minorities at work in Europe, millions of normal citizens wish simply a course correction or normalisation.

Flawed Diagnosis

Even in the aftermath of the tragic terror attacks in France, Belgium and now Germany, European leaders’ diagnosis is flawed

1. All that Islamist terrorists want is to take away our Freedoms (read freedom of movement etc.)
2. If we integrate immigrants better, then home-grown terrorism would vanish
3. Lack of economic opportunities are main driver of Radical of Islam

Sadly, even leading experts share these views. They are not wrong, but they fail to address the main causes. Neither politicians nor so-called experts dare to acknowledge the real source of the radicalisation and threats. As a result, Europe’s economic, military and security deterioration will only gather pace.

Daring to look out into the Future of Europe

While our research points to a slow-motion deterioration of the EU and its eventual implosion, we see the rise of a European Super State or Federation in the long run. What the experts won’t tell you: The best friend of Berlin-Paris-Brussels is ongoing crisis: EU leaders need unending crises to weaken the national states and to induce them to freely hand over their sovereignties in exchange for bail-outs and protection. The migrant crisis is a good example of this strategy of Integration through the back door. This is straightforward geopolitical-macroeconomic reasoning (I reject to work with conspiracy theories).

Just like the United Nations, the European Union is not as unprofessional or incapable as many critics say. They are quite a genius indeed. The EU simply allows crises to rise and simmer, because this helps them achieve their undeclared well-meaning goal: Total Power Concentration, for the good of humanity of course. What I criticise as an independent analyst is that they don’t openly talk about it. nor would they let citizens vote over it. It of course sounds better to say: all we want is Unity and Freedom. With most people following the narrative of mainstream media and others reading only superficial Social Media “bits”, the EU and UN are making good progress towards their respective goals of Power Concentration.

After promoting millions of immigrants to move countries, removing borders, weakening the Rule of Law and allowing big firms to become gigantic Oligopolies, the EU will tell you that individual nation states can’t cope with today’s challenges. Thus, overwhelmed nation states have to come together into Super States, of which the EU is the first one. In a not too distant future, individual nation states may exist only on paper.

Christian Takushi MA UZH,Macro Economist & Strategist, 21 Dec 2016, Zurich-Geneva, Switzerland.

General Disclaimer: Global Macro and Geopolitical Analysis are highly complex and subject to sudden changes. No analytical method is without certain disadvantages. We may change our 3-pronged outlook within less than 3-6 hours following an event or data release. Global macro analysis can be extremely time-sensitive and the first 24 hours after an event are critical for the response of a government, corporation, pension or portfolio. Only qualified investors should make use of macro reports and treat them as an additional independent perspective. Every investor should weigh different perspectives as well as “opportunities & risks” before making any investment decision. Not all our reports, research and intelligence is published here. What we release here is delayed and adapted. The research & views we post here for public access are aimed at fostering research exchange (to improve our assessment) and helping decision makers adapt their long term & strategic planning to changing realities, not for short term decisions. If you are not a qualified or professional investor, you should get professional advice before taking any investment decisions.

Geopolitical Economics is a registered corporation in Switzerland. The commercial name is protected under Swiss Law. After years of developing methodologies to integrate Geopolitics and Macroeconomics, Christian Takushi developed & defined the term Geopolitical Economics, sharing it with the public in order to facilitate more research and discussions (see definition in separate still page). The term expresses the growing influence of geopolitical, political, military, religious and other external factors on the Global Economy and Financial Markets – with its feedback loops. 

This broader approach to Macroeconomics and Geopolitics is free of conspiracy theories, ideology and judgement: All nations pursue their national interests with all means at their disposal, just as corporations do. It is, in a way, an economist’s empirical-oriented and ideology-free approach to political analysis. Applied at a global scale and aggregate level, the Western linear-logical way of thinking is complemented by the Oriental circular worldview to improve results. With Geopolitics encompassing the political process, demographics, religion and geography among other resources, Geopolitical Economics explains many of the trends of a world in transition

Economists, political analysts, investors and business leaders are responding positively. The one thing many of them appreciate is the pragmatism of the approach: the focus on those interactions and risks that could impact the world economy and financial markets. This, without overlooking the influence of economic trends on the political process.

We would like to thank the many professionals, scholars and experts that are contributing to advance research at this strategic juncture for the world economy and the geopolitical landscape.

Geopolitical Economics Ltd., Geopolitical Economics S.A. and Geopolitical Economics AG are protected names.

“Your article is fascinating reading. One of the best posts I have ever read. I want to read your other articles going forward.”  By Joseph M. Pimbley Ph.D. Physics, Principal at Maxwell Consulting, New York

“Gifted with a unique maverick approach … Christian Takushi is today a forerunner of a new economics, geopolitical economics. A new movement of thinkers and achievers has begun.”  By Ludmila Morozova-Buss, M.S. In Mathematics, Management, Technology and Entrepreneurship Roundtable Owner, Berlin

“Independent thinking has become a rare and important source of information. I’m very thankful for Christian Takushi & his team’s research and opinions over the last 20 years – he predicted BREXIT and Trump.”  By Dr. Claude Schmidt, Swiss Economist & Investment Banker, 3 Dec 2016, Zurich

Recent speeches by Christian Takushi, a Macro Economist & Strategist with over 26 years experience in Investment Management:

• 1 Oct 2015 Keynote speech at Geneva Investment Conference INVEST’15
• 11 Nov 2015 Keynote speech at European Pension Forum in Zurich
• 9 Dec 2015  CFA Society Switzerland in Geneva – CE approved seminary (2015-2018 Super Crisis period)
• 23 Feb 2016  FoF Panel on the Global Outlook for Interest Rates in Zurich
• 12 April 2016  Bespoke Alternative Investment Panel (Geopolitics, Islamic State, Iran’s Oil Business) in Geneva
• 20-22 April 2016  Global Risk Forum at Elite Summit for Family Offices in Montreux, Switzerland
• 30 May 2016  CFA Society Switzerland in Zurich – CE approved seminary (World in transition, changes ahead)
• 10 June 2016  IMD Lausanne, Executive MBA Program, The Future of the European Union
• 1 Sep 2016  Swiss IR Club, Bank am Bellevue Zurich, The Rise of the European Super State
• 3 Oct 2016  Global Investment Conference in Montreux, Quantifying Global Risk Trends panel
• 16 Nov 2016 Geopolitical Outlook after US Elections, Vontobel Asset Management Conference in Zurich
• 23 Nov 2016 Geopolitical Outlook after US Elections, Vontobel Asset Management Conference in Geneva
• 13 May 2017 Global Pension Conference, Economic Outlook, Montreux

1. Global Geopolitical Macro Factors drive the Swiss Franc (partial capital restrictions are introduced) and Gold higher

2. Return of old conflicts in East Asia, South Asia & Middle East as imploding Labor Forces lead China, Russia, Japan, Thailand, Korea .. to deflect geopolitically (Unprecedented Arms Race)

3. High likelihood for market corrections during 2015-2018 as 50% of Geopolitical & Macro Trends overlap. A Perfect Storm or Super Crisis (cascading events) for the established political system could result.

4. US-Iran Deal gives NATO access to Iran’s Gas/Oil, but leads to 2 wars in Middle East. Israel to sign a Peace Treaty & rebuild Solomon’s Temple (The 3rd Temple)

5. Center of Christianity shifts to Asia, Africa and Latin America – China becomes largest Christian nation (i.e. Christian population exceeds 300 Million)

6. China fails to overtake the USA as superpower by her own means. USA to power ahead after 2025 if it can avert natural-political-security disasters. China gravitates towards Germany

7. Debasing of paper-currencies leads to Global Currency Reforms, Nationalisations & massive Wealth transfers

8. Accelerated Phasing Out of Democracy and Market Economy on a global scale. Martial Law & State of Emergency could be enforced in Western nations

9. Large-scale preparations for extraordinary Natural Catastrophes. Geophysical changes add to Asset & Value destructions across Northern hemisphere. 1/3 of world assets are wiped out

10. Germany rises to challenge the USA. Russia and China move geostrategically closer to Germany – Arctic route & Indian Ocean are game changers

11. Converging crises and wars overwhelm individual nation states, paving the way for the rise of Super States on all continents. A European Federation (Christian-Islamic Super State) to rise from demise of EU. Super States and giant Oligopolies converge to global Monopolies.

12. Period of Global Transition and Great Uncertainty that started in 1999 ends as a new Global Equilibrium with unprecedented concentrations of powers sets in. On its quest for Peace, a war-weary humanity embraces a One World Government – which might be preceded by a Global Currency Reform, debt defaults and nationalisations.

Christian Takushi MA UZH has been warning of these events & trends since 2010 at numerous speeches.

GROM – GLOBAL RISK OVERLAP MODEL 

A summary of the 24 Global Geopolitical Macro Factors we are constantly monitoring

Our GLOBAL RISK OVERLAP MODEL (GROM) is relevant for governments, multinational firms and investors. It is continually monitored and updated.

During Spring of 2015 our Global Risk Barometer reached the level of 9, it receded to 8.75 in Q4, but rose back above 9 in early 2016. In Dec 2016 the Barometer declined to 9, contrary to the uproar among consensus experts and media.

Conditions are present for a crisis, but since there are many possible triggers, timing the crisis eruption is difficult. That is why we continually monitor multiple factors.

I am closely monitoring three factors currently misjudged by Consensus that could potentially affect the economy and financial markets. The EU is most vulnerable to them. After the humiliation of having missed the BREXIT and US elections outcome last year, Consensus is overstating geopolitical risks emanating from the USA and Europe, but underestimating the aftermath of the US-Iran Deal and structural shifts at the macroeconomic front. The impact of Deregulation and Tax Cuts on the US and UK economies are being underestimated.

We expect the Global Risk level to remain elevated throughout the Transition Period 2015-2018. Powered by deregulation and tax cuts, the USA could see an economic and social revitalisation. Uncertainty and Distrust could weigh on Potential Economic Growth though. People should ready contingency plans for their businesses and families.

NOTE: on 15 July 2015 our LEV-AL Status was raised to 4. Businesses should prepare for limited disruptions. LEV-AL is on watch for a possible upgrade to 3 prior to August-September 2017.

LEV-AL ALERT SYSTEM

Our continuous service to businesses and investors. It indicates the LEVEL of ALERTNESS they should apply to meet the RISK of DISRUPTIONS to business & investment operations (LEV-AL is a DEFCON for the economy)

Terror attacks in Europe and large-scale evacuation drills & preparations for war confirm our LEVAL assessment of 4 and our Global Risk assessment of 9 are on track. The Level of Alertness was put on watch on 18 October 2016 to be raised to 3. In case of a risk event or the likelihood of such we would be updating the Lev-Al Status within 3 hours.

Our broad geopolitical analysis is producing Economic Forecasts that reflect potentially big swings in asset prices: The Dow could fall as low as 14’000, Gold rise as high as $1’500 until 2018:

During this vulnerable Transition Period 2015-2018 the USD could weaken as far as 1.30 or 1.40 to the Euro, but in the event of a large-scale war (i.e. Iran-Israel or Iran-Saudi Arabia), the USD could strengthen to 1.0 or 0.9 to the Euro. The price of Gold and the Swiss Franc may see more upward pressure than downward. We see a decline in consumer discretionary demand growth in Europe, China, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Mexico, Chile, Brazil and Taiwan, but from Q1 2017 robust energy, security and military spending will in some economies help compensate this weakness.

” Honor the Lord with your wealth “

Below you can find some of our Outlooks, Updates and guest articles ..