Video Updates & Radio interviews From Christian Takushi

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This October 22nd Takushi speaks at a CFA Seminar on US Elections

The CFA Society Switzerland is hosting independent Macro Economist and CFA member Christian Takushi for a special online seminar on the US Elections 2020. The CFA Institute is the premier global association of investment professionals – with over 178’000 members worldwide. Takushi speaks at CFA Seminars since 2012. CFA members earn PL credits.

For more information about CFA click HERE

Independent Global Geopolitical Macro Research

Research provided on this website is “free of charge” but delayed and truncated – Sensitive newsletter reports are not published here nor are they shared with the public

None of our geopolitical macroeconomic analysis should be interpreted or in any way construed as an investment recommendation or suggestion

Editorial: EU to build own military & financial system ex USA

By Christian Takushi MA UZH Macro Economist – 28 Aug 2018 (delayed public release)

French President Macron has stated this week that Europe needs to build her own financial and security framework in order to be independent from the USA. He confirmed the repeated calls by German Chancellor Merkel for Europe to detach from the USA. Paris, Berlin and Brussels are now in agreement. Many are cheering that the EU is standing up to America.

The EU is on confrontation course with the USA, and the Anglo-Saxon world in a sense. This is something we have been warning of for years. Many would like to blame this on US President Trump alone  – a convenient, but somewhat misleading narrative. The USA and Europe have been on collision course for a long time. But despite the increasingly conflicting interests, political leaders on both sides of the Atlantic for over a decade continued to stress “the shared values” in public instead.

This  clash was coming. Europe has been embracing China and Iran (both, serious threats to US hegemony and security) for a long time – long before even Trump announced to run for President. The EU sought to accelerate the rise of China to counterbalance US supremacy – the fast track to a multipolar world. While speaking harshly to Russia in public, Berlin was forcefully advancing a Russian-German pipeline, sealing its dramatic dependence on Russian energy. French defence giants, loaded with expertise but “starved” of projects at home, begun to expand aggressively overseas. Their focus: strategically chosen countries and programs. France begun to contain US-British military interests on other continents. Berlin is now drafting a financial system to help European companies defy US sanctions on Iran. That system could be used to curtail the reach of the US Treasury and future US sanctions on any other state though.   [Read more]

Recent posts not to miss:

Geopolitical Update : Beginning of US Downfall? Debt Crises & Conflicts loom

https://geopoliticalresearch.com/?p=9760

Geopolitical Update: A possible war with 2-3 fronts looms in the Middle East

Geopolitical Update: Abe sweeps 67% of votes as Japan rearms and shifts to the right

Europe to become a Super State – More integration & power concentration is coming (Interview)

You can scroll down to all available Posts

GROM – GLOBAL RISK OVERLAP MODEL 

Our GLOBAL RISK OVERLAP MODEL (GROM) is relevant for governments, multinational firms and investors.

Our Global Risk Barometer shows that conditions are present for a major crisis. This model was developed to gauge the level of vulnerability of the world economy to systemic external risks, but not to predict a trigger or timing of a crisis. Europe is particularly vulnerable to most crisis scenarios. 

We expect the Global Risk level to remain elevated throughout the (2nd) Transition Period 2017-2024. In conjunction with our LEV-AL Model this suggests that businesses, governments and ministries should prepare contingency plans for major disruptions of operations and supply chains.

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“After 45 years of a liberal Policy Mix, a multi-year process of Normalisation in Global Politics and Economics started in 2015. Fears of extreme isolation and protectionism by the USA and UK will prove overdone. We see rather a temporary correction towards the historical mean after a long period of unprecedented liberal advances across the board. One that will eventually fail to stop the secular trend of liberal globalisation ” By Christian Takushi MA UZH, 3 Dec 2016.

Many observers and analysts err in their view of the new US Supreme Court. Based on our independent analysis, we assess that the Supreme Court is less conservative than widely believed. On paper it is conservative, but the facto rather “centrist” or “centrist-conservative leaning” depending on the issues at stake. 

LATAM: Argentina – Brazil – Peru – Russia – China

In the vacuum of US leadership in Latin America, Russia and especially China are growing their influence (an excerpt of our research from Jan 2016 was viewed over 1 million times). The struggle between the super powers has shifted to Latin America. Latest update only available to policy makers.

Eastern Europe: Turkey – Romania – Poland 

For almost ten years Takushi is predicting the inexorable Geopolitical rise of Turkey and the potential rise of Romania & Poland as European powers. While Turkey is rising as a result of its excellent strategic geopolitical advisers and Europe’s lack of strategic foresight, Romania could benefit greatly from strategic energy & military shifts. Takushi sees Bucharest lacking global strategic-geopolitical expertise though. In that sense, Warsaw is one step ahead. Nations will rise and fall based on their ability to capitalise on global strategic-geopolitical shifts. (Latest update only available for policy makers)

After years of researching Geopolitics and Macroeconomics, Takushi found that broadening Macro Research to include geopolitical factors improved the quality of predictions. He thanks the many professionals and experts that are contributing to advance this research.

This new approach to Geopolitical Analysis is free of conspiracy theories, ideology and judgement: All nations pursue their national interests with all means at their disposal, just as corporations do. This is, in a way, an economist’s approach to political analysis. Applied at a global scale and aggregate levels, the Western linear-logical way of thinking is complemented by the Oriental circular worldview to improve results.

• 10 June 2016  IMD Lausanne, Executive MBA Program, The Future of the European Union
• 13 Jun 2017  CFA Society Switzerland in Lausanne – CE approved seminary (The coming Middle East Crisis)
• 7 Mar 2018  The European Super State & Middle East War – Swiss Investment Conference, Park Hyatt Zurich
• 25 Oct 2018  Geopolitical Trends in Asia. Headquarters of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) – Basel
• 15 Nov 2018  Geopolitical Risks & Opportunities in Eastern Europe – Zurich University for Applied Sciences’ investor conference
• 24 Jan 2020  IMD Alumni  Geopolitical Outlook: World Economy is vulnerable to Multiple Risks
• 3 Oct 2021  Underestimated Global Geopolitical and Monetary Trends to clash in this decade, Bern – Switzerland

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“If you are an investment professional, Christian Takushi encourages you to visit the website of the CFA Institute. It is the premier global association of investment professionals – with over 178’000 members worldwide. Takushi, himself a CFA member, speaks at CFA Seminars since 2012. He also encourages other investment professionals to seek membership and adhere to the CFA ethical standards.”

For more information about the CFA Institute click here