The Video of Takushi’s speech at the annual Investment Conference in Zurich by Uhlenbruch has been uploaded. There was much feedback and interest on our strategic forecasts as they differ greatly from Consensus.
Geopolitical Video: Europe is Biggest Loser of a possible Trade War
Geopolitical Update: US exit of Iran Deal exposes Europe’s new alliances
Geopolitical Update: A possible war with 2-3 fronts looms in the Middle East
Geopolitical Update: US recognises Jerusalem as Israel’s capital – Why a Peace Deal is not unlikely
Geopolitical Update: Abe sweeps 67% of votes as Japan rearms and shifts to the right
Europe to become a Super State – More integration & power concentration is coming (Interview)
“After 45 years of a liberal Policy Mix, a multi-year process of Normalisation in Global Politics and Economics started in 2016. Fears of extreme isolation and protectionism by the USA and UK will prove as overdone. We see rather a process of correction towards the historical mean after a period of unprecedented growth in trade volumes and corporate profits along a dramatic erosion of the middle class and security across the board. The recent BREXIT and TRUMP shocks pose both an array of risks and opportunities … ” By Christian Takushi MA UZH, 3 Dec 2016.
We pointed to coming Trump Shock. A Post Elections Analysis:
The day when US Suburbs joined Rural America to defeat the Big Cities. It is a revolt against Washington and the values of Big Cities (LA, SF, NY and Chicago), but also the return of Religion as a factor. This illustration by the Univ. of Michigan reflects the social-religious divide. BREXIT and TRUMP are a sequential double-shock – We may have to go back to the double shock of the Doolittle Raid on Tokyo and the Battle of Midway in WW2 to find something similar within 12 months.
A summary of the up to 24 Global Geopolitical Factors we monitor.
Our GLOBAL RISK OVERLAP MODEL (GROM) is relevant for governments, multinational firms and investors.
During Spring of 2015 our Global Risk Barometer reached the level of 9, it receded to 8.75 in Q4. In Dec 2016 the Barometer declined again contrary to the uproar by consensus and media. In August 2017 our Barometer climbed to 9.5, the highest on record. Conditions are present for a crisis, but since there are multiple possible triggers, timing a crisis eruption is difficult. That is why we continually monitor multiple factors and decline to try to ‘call’ a crisis. One thing is clear – Europe is particularly vulnerable.
We expect the Global Risk level to remain elevated throughout the (2nd) Transition Period 2017-2024. People should ready contingency plans for their businesses and families. And no longer focus on crises alone, but coping with sweeping changes.
Geopolitical Economics is a registered corporation in Switzerland. After years of developing methodologies to integrate Geopolitics and Macroeconomics, Takushi found that broadening Macro Research to include geopolitical factors improved the quality of his predictions. He thanks the many professionals, scholars and experts that are contributing to advance this research. Geopolitical Economics Ltd., Geopolitical Economics S.A. and Geopolitical Economics AG are protected names.
This new approach to Geopolitical Analysis is free of conspiracy theories, ideology and judgement: All nations pursue their national interests with all means at their disposal, just as corporations do. This is, in a way, an economist’s approach to political analysis. Applied at a global scale and aggregate levels, the Western linear-logical way of thinking is complemented by the Oriental circular worldview to improve results. With Geopolitics encompassing the political process, demographics, religion and geography among other resources, Geopolitical Economics explains many of the trends of a world in transition.
“Your article is fascinating reading. One of the best posts I have ever read. I want to read your other articles going forward.” By Joseph M. Pimbley Ph.D. Physics, Principal at Maxwell Consulting, New York
“Gifted with a unique maverick approach … Christian Takushi is today a forerunner of a new economics, geopolitical economics. A new movement of thinkers and achievers has begun.” By Ludmila Morozova-Buss, M.S. In Mathematics, Management, Technology and Entrepreneurship Roundtable Owner, Berlin
“Independent thinking has become a rare and important source of information. I’m very thankful for Christian Takushi & his team’s research and opinions over the last 20 years – he predicted BREXIT and Trump.” By Dr. Claude Schmidt, Swiss Economist & Investment Banker, 3 Dec 2016, Zurich
( All articles & media prior to 2016 are from Takushi’s personal archives and are here only for reference )
By Christian Takushi MA UZH – 27 June 2018 (delayed public release 3 July 2018) Over the past two weeks we have been working on three different research reports – Germany, Trade Wars Are Not Over and US Elections. We are releasing our analysis on Germany first, because the CSU has threatened…
https://www.cash.ch/news/politik/geopolitik-groesster-verlierer-im-handelsstreit-ist-europa-1182424 Zurich 15 June 2018: Swiss investment newsreel Cash wanted Takushi’s Geopolitical Assessment of the current Trade Frictions. This interview took place on a short notice and the seasoned journalist didn’t give him the questions in advance, something we support and appreciate. Viewers and readers get this way the unfiltered…
By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Macro Economist & Geopolitical Strategist. 22 May 2018 – Switzerland (public partial release 8 days delayed: 30 may 2018) Over the past 72 hours the United States is reasserting its position as geopolitical superpower – it has sent strong signals in Asia, the Middle East and…
By Christian Takushi MA UZH, 8 May 2018 – Switzerland (public release delayed by 10 days: 18 May 2018). The United States has pulled out of the Iran Deal. This is a preliminary assessment. Despite the resolute attempts by the USA to contain Iran, these efforts (we ascertain) will fail….
By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Macro Economist & Geopolitical Strategist. 14 April 2018 – Switzerland. (the public release was delayed by 6 hours) The USA, France and Britain have taken action against Syria overnight. The air strikes by Naval and Air allied forces is a limited & focused strike. US Central Command’s…
By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Macro Economist and Geopolitical Strategist – Switzerland, 11 April 2018 (Public release 48 hours delayed) Over the past two weeks of Easter and Passover celebrations several geopolitical trends we have been monitoring (and warning about) have begun to converge in a worrisome way. A new…
By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist & Geopolitical Strategist, 22 Mar 2018 – Switzerland (Public release was delayed 72 hours) Today the US Government announced steep tariffs on China. China has been getting away with every behaviour and trade tactic over the past 30 years, but Western governments looked always away…
Christian Takushi MA UZH, Macro Economist & Geopolitical Strategist, Switzerland – 11 March 2018. (public release 72 hours delayed). I worked until Sunday on this analysis, and events over the past two days have further reinforced my assessment. The ousting of Mr. Tillerson and the arrival of Mr. Pompeo prepares the…
By Christian Takushi, Macro Economist & Geopolitical Strategist, Switzerland – 7 Mar 2018 Here is the Video of the Geopolitical Speech at the 3rd Annual Swiss Investment Conference by Uhlenbruch at the Park Hyatt Zurich on 7 Mar 2018. The CFA Institute granted 5.5 CE Credits to the participants. Takushi’s…
By Christian Takushi – 5 Mar 2017, Switzerland Economist Christian Takushi says a War or sweeping change is coming to the Middle East. He also explains how Europe is a main source for the current destabilisation of the region. Germany’s embrace of Iran and the EU’s desire for Iranian Gas/Oil…
By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Macro Economist & Geopolitical Strategist, 19 Feb 2018 – Switzerland. (Public release delayed by 7 days) This is an update on the European geopolitical-political process. Of all things we are monitoring in Europe two important developments stand out over the past 10 days – and…
US Radio host Ron Myers (radio 74 Europe) interviews Economist Christian Takushi on 16 Feb 2018 on his recent geopolitical analysis & predictions: – 2 wars in the Middle East, one of them could be nuclear – Europe’s desire for Iranian Oil & Gas helps explain fierce battles in NE…
