(only a fraction of our geopolitical research is available to the public on this website)
Cash Magazine Interview with Christian Takushi June 15, 2017 – Translation into English is available. Title: “Europe to become a Super State”
Cash: The economist and financial expert Christian Takushi correctly predicted BREXIT and TRUMP’s victory. He says the Middle East faces a major war. He also draws a scenario for the future of Europe in a Cash-Interview
Editorial: Events in the Middle East to gather pace
Significant anniversary puts all parties before choice of war or odd alliances ..
For months we have warned of the acceleration of events in the Middle East ahead of the 50th anniversary of the 6 Day War. Few know that war was itself the Arab response to the 50th anniversary of the Balfourt Declaration which paved the way for the re-birth of the state of Israel on its ancient land. Much of thinking by Oriental decision makers is cyclical, historical and religion/honor inspired.
After having informed our clients we’ll release to the public a special summarised Geopolitical Outlook over the next 30 hours, just before the 50th Anniversary of the 6 Day War (5-10 June 1967).
Takushi has been invited by the CFA Society to give a speech in Lausanne on June 13th 2017 at noon. Non CFA members are also welcome. An extensive Q&A session will take place. http://swiss.cfa/Lists/Events%20Calendar/DispForm.aspx?ID=2418
The fact that in less than 36 hours the inferior Israeli tank brigades could utterly wipe out all Egyptian tank divisions – destroying over 700 modern Soviet tanks – is not a lesser impossibility than the surprise raid by the Israeli Air Force that practically destroyed the entire Egyptian Air Force on the ground – before they could take off. Syria and Egypt had prepared meticulously for this war since they lost the 1st Arab-Israeli War of 1948 and the Sinai conflict. The Russian ground-air missiles should have wiped out the Israeli Air Force (another patchwork of second hand items), but a most unusual convergence of events played out in Israeli favor. Originally military experts said the Egyptian High Command did all wrong, and the Israelis did all right – which is to a large extent true. The Israelis used their utter inferiority to their advantage. One Israeli tank commander that survived the ferocious Sinai tank battles said “we knew this was life or death, .. but a (superior) enemy can be shocked when you never stop”. In recent years, more military scholars acknowledge that the shocking speed and gallantry of the Israeli tankers and fighter pilots – backed by an edge in intelligence – cannot fully explain what unfolded in those 6 days.
A fateful 50th anniversary overlaps with another fateful 100th anniversary: In other (less religious and less prophetic) parts of the world, the 6 Day War would be laid to rest. But Jews and Arabs are weighted by the religious, astrological and historical patterns at work – which remain mostly overlooked by Western scholars. This year the Moslem World also remembers the 100th anniversary of the defeat of German-Turkish armies in the Judean Hills and the Negev, which led to the return of Jerusalem to Christianity in November 2017 (i.e. British Expeditionary Forces led by Gen. Allenby in WW1). That marked the end of 673 years of Moslem control of Jerusalem – a disaster that ushered the end of the Ottoman Empire (last Great Caliphate) in 1922. A dark chapter that Turkey, Iran and Arab leaders want to re-write between 2017 and 2022.
Politics will be able to mobilise all peoples involved: The great religious zeal of Arabs and Israelis heightens the inexplicable series of disasters and miracles during those fateful 6 long days. Add to it the political necessity of rising Middle Eastern powers (Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia etc) to avenge the humiliating outcomes of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd Arab-Israeli Wars. This to secure their leadership of the Muslim world. In the deceitful quest for Securing Peace in our Time, President Trump is risking a similarly controversial and fateful move to Obama’s: Just as Obama set the Middle East on path for war to appease and strengthen Iran, President Trump is appeasing Saudi Arabia & Egypt to avert a military conflict this June 2017. But at the cost of massive military and political concessions. The Middle East actors are dramatically accelerating their Arms Race to wage a major war, but they will be forced by the West to talk about peace and sign a Peace Treaty. Jerusalem is most likely to be at the center of a conflict, that will pave the way for a Peace Treaty. By war or peace treaty, whoever can help regain control over Jerusalem will be able to establish extensive leadership over the Middle East. But all signs point to a deceitful and short period of peace. In this main scenario Europe is by far the most vulnerable power.
Christian Takushi MA UZH, Macro Economist & Strategist, 2 June 2017, Zurich-Geneva, Switzerland. Text adapted for the public on 4 June 2017.
General Disclaimer: Global Macro and Geopolitical Analysis are highly complex and subject to sudden changes. No analytical method is without certain disadvantages. We may change our 3-pronged outlook within less than 3-6 hours following an event or data release. Global geopolitical macro analysis can be extremely time-sensitive and the first 24 hours after an event are critical for the response of a government, corporation, pension or portfolio. Only qualified investors and seasoned decision makers should make use of our geopolitical macro reports and treat them as an additional independent perspective. Every investor should weigh different perspectives as well as “opportunities & risks” before making any investment decision. Not all our reports, research and intelligence is published here. What we release here is delayed and adapted. The research & views we post here for public access are aimed at fostering research exchange (to improve our assessment) and helping decision makers adapt their long term & strategic planning to changing realities, not for short term decisions. If you are not a qualified or professional investor, you should get professional advice before taking any investment decisions.
We maintain since early 2016 that Fears of a Voter Revolt & Rise of the Far Right in the EU are premature and overdone. On April 22 we released to the public our Geopolitical Outlook from 24 March 2017:
Recent Editorial from 14 Mar 2017
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Global Geopolitical Macroeconomic Outlook:
Released to the public on 19 Oct 2016
Focus on how the BREXIT aftermath is weighing on US elections, German-Turkish relations and the fight for the US Supreme Court. Ironically, under a Clinton administration our independent research sees a higher likelihood for large scale wars.
Martial Law may be coming to the West:
16 July 2016 – Switzerland
As some of you may be aware, we have been forewarning of Martial Law to be imposed in many nations, also in the West, in the future. The unprecedented confluence of political, economic, military, religious and geophysical crises & threats is likely to overwhelm many nation states. Many Western democracies are particularly vulnerable. I reiterate my analysis from 2015 that Martial law and even the postponement of Elections cannot be ruled out.
After decades of fostering a system in which (1) the law is no longer enforced for certain groups of people, (2) hypersensitivity & “entitlement thinking” have shaped culture, (3) the middle class has been downgraded, and (4) activist movements have seized media & news channels to shape public opinion, Civil Unrest is only waiting to be ignited.
The recent highly organised violent paid-for demonstrations, racial/religious tensions, and planned killing of police officers may be only the foreshadows of what lies ahead.
by Christian Takushi MA UZH, Macro Economist & Strategist, Switzerland, 16 Jul 2016