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The independent research boutique that predicted Brexit, Trump .. and the liberal revival of Western Europe since 2017

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Since 2016 our newsletter is ranked among the 50 most reliable sources of geopolitical analysis worldwide

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Video updates & Radio interviews from Christian Takushi

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What the world is overlooking ..

While millions of people are fixated on Covid or whether or not to take the vaccine, the biggest overhaul of society is gathering pace. The Western industrialised economies are de-facto bankrupt and .. buying time by printing paper money at a reckless pace. People don’t notice it, because all major nations are printing simultaneously and gold prices are being kept from rising.
Having lost their moral compass and refused recessions (market discipline) for the past two decades, Western nations are printing money to finance their deficits, Covid programs and to prop up their stocks, bonds and real estate. The coming Currency Reform is “overdue” and only part of a “global reset” in politics, security, economics and money. Unaware that crypto was “the” central element of central bankers’ Exit Strategy, crypto investors have been the greatest blessing to central bankers’ own digital strategy and efforts to keep the gold price from rising sharply.
An irony, that exactly those weary of big government have shunned gold to buy crypto currencies. G7 governments seized financial markets over the past 12 years and are now beginning to seize the real economy – a Green economy will be enforced. By the end of this decade nearly 3/4 of all G7 citizens will be depending on the state for their income, directly or indirectly. Government regulation – not private enterprise – is the main driver of jobs among the G10. As the G10 and G20 boost oligopolies and monopolies, the fate of the capitalistic market economy and democracy seems sealed.
With Western economies as vulnerable as in the mid 1930’s, a growing number of geopolitical risks are also converging – especially over the Middle East – threatening to trigger a Perfect Storm that could devastate the fragile & bankrupt Western world – One that would not concede it can’t repay its debt. G10 policy makers have to act before that happens, if they can agree. Zero interest rates and excessive money have have crippled productive investments, boosted speculation and weakened the real economy. In the current shape, the Western economies could not survive a major war in the Middle East or another major systemic risk event.
With investors’ morality compromised since 2009 and money illusion ruling consumers & retirees, policy makers are on the driver’s seat. the convergence of external forces is likely to trigger the coming monetary reform.
Governments, businesses and even charities need to prepare for these events – i.e. diversify away partially from the Northern hemisphere, de-facto bankrupt Western economies and inflated financial assets. Contrary to public opinion, it is the Western nations that are the most over-indebted and whose financial & real estate assets are most inflated (at risk). Ironically, it is small and mid-sized emerging nations around the equator and in the Southern hemisphere that have upheld fiscal and monetary discipline over the past 20 years. Some are currently in political trouble, because they refused to print money to address the Covid crisis. What investors will denounce as wealth destruction is seen by policy makers as a necessary normalisation, correctly so. What has been utterly inflated will have to be deflated. Both hyper-inflation and deflation are coming.

Editorial: EU to build own military & financial system ex USA

By Christian Takushi MA UZH Macro Economist – 28 Aug 2018 (delayed public release)

French President Macron has stated this week that Europe needs to build her own financial and security framework in order to be independent from the USA. He confirmed the repeated calls by German Chancellor Merkel for Europe to detach from the USA. Paris, Berlin and Brussels are now in agreement. Many are cheering that the EU is standing up to America.

The EU is on confrontation course with the USA, and the Anglo-Saxon world in a sense. This is something we have been warning of for years. Many would like to blame this on US President Trump alone  – a convenient, but somewhat misleading narrative. The USA and Europe have been on collision course for a long time. But despite the increasingly conflicting interests, political leaders on both sides of the Atlantic for over a decade continued to stress “the shared values” in public instead.

This  clash was coming. Europe has been embracing China and Iran[Read more]

Since 2016 our newsletter is consistently ranked among the 50 most reliable sources of geopolitical analysis worldwide

“After 45 years of a liberal Policy Mix, a multi-year process of Normalization in Global Politics and Economics started in 2015. Fears of extreme isolation and protectionism by the USA and UK will prove overdone. We see rather a temporary correction towards the historical mean. Nevertheless, this correction will eventually fail to stop the secular trend of liberal globalisation and unprecedented power concentration – Free markets and personal freedoms will also fade away” By Christian Takushi MA UZH, 3 Dec 2016.

 

Many observers and analysts err in their view of the new US Supreme Court. Based on our independent analysis, we assess that the Supreme Court is less conservative than widely believed. On paper it is conservative, but the facto rather “centrist” or “centrist-conservative leaning” depending on the issues at stake.

 

LATAM – In China’s grip: Brazil, Peru and Chile

In the vacuum of US leadership in Latin America, Russia and especially China are growing their influence (an excerpt of our research from Jan 2016 was viewed over 1 million times). The struggle between the super powers has shifted to Latin America. After consolidating her influence over Argentina, Venezuela and Bolivia, Beijing is now launching a massive concerted effort to bring the most capitalistic resource-rich economies (Chile, Peru etc.) under her influence. Latest update only available to policy makers.

Eastern Europe: Turkey – Romania – Poland 

For almost ten years Takushi is predicting the inexorable Geopolitical rise of Turkey and the potential rise of Romania & Poland as European powers. While Turkey is rising as a result of its excellent strategic geopolitical advisers and Europe’s lack of strategic foresight, Romania could benefit greatly from strategic energy & military shifts. Takushi sees Bucharest lacking global strategic-geopolitical expertise though. In that sense, Warsaw is one step ahead. Nations will rise and fall based on their ability to capitalize on global strategic-geopolitical shifts. (Latest update only available for policy makers)

After years of researching Geopolitics and Macroeconomics, Takushi found that broadening Macro Research to include geopolitical factors improved the quality of predictions. He thanks the many professionals and experts that are contributing to advance this research.

This new approach to Geopolitical Analysis is free of conspiracy theories, ideology and judgement: All nations pursue their national interests with all means at their disposal, just as corporations do. This is, in a way, an economist’s approach to political analysis. Applied at a global scale and aggregate levels, the Western linear-logical way of thinking is complemented by the Oriental circular worldview to improve results.

  • 10 June 2016  IMD Lausanne, Executive MBA Program, The Future of the European Union
  • 13 Jun 2017  CFA Society Switzerland in Lausanne – CE approved seminary (The coming Middle East Crisis)
  • 7 Mar 2018  The European Super State & Middle East War – Swiss Investment Conference, Park Hyatt Zurich
  • 25 Oct 2018  Geopolitical Trends in Asia. Headquarters of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) – Basel
  • 15 Nov 2018  Geopolitical Risks & Opportunities in Eastern Europe – Zurich University for Applied Sciences’ investor conference
  • 24 Jan 2020  IMD Alumni  Geopolitical Outlook: World Economy is vulnerable to Multiple Risks
  • 3 Oct 2020  Underestimated Global Geopolitical and Monetary Trends to clash in this decade, Bern – Switzerland
  • 5 Nov 2020  Online Seminar: US Elections 2020, why in 2020 the Senate matters more

GROM – Global Risk Overlap Model

Our GLOBAL RISK OVERLAP MODEL (GROM) is relevant for governments, multinational firms and investors.

Our Global Risk Barometer shows that conditions are present for a major crisis. This model was developed to gauge the level of vulnerability of the world economy to systemic external risks, but not to predict a trigger or timing of a crisis. Europe is particularly vulnerable to most crisis scenarios. 

We expect the Global Risk level to remain elevated throughout the (2nd) Transition Period 2017-2024. In conjunction with our LEV-AL Model this suggests that businesses, governments and ministries should prepare contingency plans for major disruptions of operations and supply chains.

Independent Global Geopolitical Macro Research

Research provided on this website is “free of charge” but delayed and truncated – ONLY OUR SUBSCRIBERS receive our research instantly. No sensitive newsletter reports are published here. None of our geopolitical macroeconomic analysis should be interpreted or in any way construed as an investment recommendation or suggestion

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Geopolitical Updates and Guest Articles are delayed and adapted

(To get the full reports without delay, you can subscribe to our newsletter – All media prior to 2016 are from Takushi’s personal archives and are here only for reference)

” Honor the Lord with your wealth “

What Readers Are Saying

“Christian Takushi is among the most significant geopolitical analysts of today and among the very few that dare to make clear predictions. He has been proved right time and again”

Dr. Dimitrios-Vasileios Kokkinos

21 Nov 2019 - UAE

“Independent thinking has become a rare and important source of information. I’m very thankful for Christian Takushi & his team’s research and opinions over the last 20 years – he predicted BREXIT and Trump.” 

Dr. Claude Schmidt

Swiss Economist & Investment Banker, 3 Dec 2016, Zurich

“Gifted with a unique maverick approach … Christian Takushi is today a forerunner of a new economics, geopolitical economics. A new movement of thinkers and achievers has begun.”

Ludmila Morozova-Buss, M.S. In Mathematics

Management, Technology and Entrepreneurship Roundtable Owner, Berlin

“Your article is fascinating reading. One of the best posts I have ever read. I want to read your other articles going forward.”

Joseph M. Pimbley

Ph.D. Physics, Principal, Maxwell Consulting, New York

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“If you are an investment professional, Christian Takushi encourages you to visit the website of the CFA Institute. It is the premier global association of investment professionals – with over 178’000 members worldwide. Takushi, himself a CFA member, speaks at CFA Seminars since 2012. He also encourages other investment professionals to seek membership and adhere to the CFA ethical standards.”

For more information about the CFA Institute click here

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